KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.12
Hit
56.6%
EV+
-2.0%
Edge
+2.6
L10
43%
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Rifler
kwezz
STATE vs overTIME
LEAN · OVER 31.5
STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
43%
3/7
L20
43%
3/7
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.21
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
0/1 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
31
Under 31.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
31
0/1 hit at 31.5
Online · this match
33.7
3/6 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kwezz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.726 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (26.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.12
Raw edge
+2.6
Cons. hit
56.6%
EV+
-2.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
31.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
56.6%
-8.7 →
Learned
47.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
57.7%213 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 42.9% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 42.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 42.9% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 42.9% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (34.26) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.3 kills vs line 31.5 (3/7 over). KPR 0.77, HS 55%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 33.3 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 34.12 vs line 31.5 → +2.62 (8.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 42.9% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
16.64
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.77
ADR
89
KAST
79.8%
HS%
54.5%
Multi-kill
19.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)19.1 · KPR 0.808 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)15.2 · KPR 0.783 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.726
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.58
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills34.26
overTIME gives up (10 series)+7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 64.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~29 kills · 37r29.9%
Normal33.7%
~34 kills · 44r67.3%
Close maps32.1%
~37 kills · 46r78%
Overtime7.9%
~41 kills · 52r92.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
+4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
+1% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 33.3 · hit 3/7 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 62.9% | |
| 30.5 Over | 60.3% | |
| 31.5 Over | 56.6% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 54.3% | below BE |
| 33.5 Over | 51.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 31.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen31.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
0.83
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.27
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.79
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.51
HS%
43.5%
K/D
0.7
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.97
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.94
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
38.7%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.86
HS%
47.4%
K/D
1.46
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 17 Anubis 13-3 | 14 Nuke 13-1 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 16 Anubis 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 30 Cache 15-19 | 49 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Cache 13-11 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 22 Cache 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 17 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-7 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































