KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.17
Hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.4%
Edge
-1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.7
Hit
42.4%
EV+
-26.6%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
mlhzin
Yawara Esports vs Grêmio
RISK · UNDER 27.5
▼ L5 24.8 · L20 28.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.74
Previous meeting · vs Grêmio
No meeting with Grêmio in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
20.5
2/2 hit at 27.5
Online · this match
29.9
6/18 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm mlhzin is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.65 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.17
Raw edge
-1.3
Cons. hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.3
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.5%
-8.3 →
Learned
34.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.75) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.6 kills vs line 27.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 52%. Next: vs Grêmio, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.6 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.17 vs line 27.5 → -1.33 (-4.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.3 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.47
HS/Map
7.53
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.62
ADR
73.7
KAST
73.1%
HS%
52%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)12.8 · KPR 0.606 · 21.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)14 · KPR 0.674 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.65
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.13%
Final projected kills26.75
Grêmio gives up (54 series)+11.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 56.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.8%
~22 kills · 36r80.9%
Normal53.9%
~27 kills · 43r57%
Close maps3.9%
~28 kills · 45r49.9%
Overtime14.4%
~32 kills · 51r31%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.3r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21r
+9% KPR here
Total
42.3r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 27.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 34.3% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 39.4% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 42.5% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 45.5% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 48.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Moved up27.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 04:53 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
44%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.78
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.87
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
64.5%
K/D
0.87
Cache
3 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.63
HS%
49%
K/D
0.88
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.02
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
41.9%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Yawara | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 20 Mirage 13-8 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | EHISTO BASE | 2 Dust2 1-13 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | ShindeN | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 11 Nuke 4-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-05 | Imperial | 13 Dust2 16-13 | 6 Cache 8-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Isurus | 13 Ancient 11-13 | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | BORRACHEIROS | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 11 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Procyon | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 22 Dust2 13-5 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | paiN Academy | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 19 Mirage 16-14 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-23 | Isurus | 25 Cache 14-16 | 10 Ancient 13-4 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-19 | Patins da Ferrari | 11 Ancient 13-11 | 19 Dust2 16-14 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-17 | Patins da Ferrari | 20 Cache 16-14 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-14 | METANOIA Wolves | 14 Mirage 13-1 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-08 | Patins da Ferrari | 14 Nuke 6-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-07 | UNO MILLE | 15 Nuke 6-13 | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-30 | Patins da Ferrari | 14 Mirage 13-6 | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-28 | MIBR Academy | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 36 Nuke 10-13 | 51 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-03 | Fluxo | 19 Dust2 9-13 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-01 | Fluxo | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-27 | Keyd Stars | 13 Anubis 13-8 | 17 Nuke 13-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-04-26 | MIBR Academy | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Mirage 13-1 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |









































































































































































