KillsBetter playRisk
Line
23
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.62
Hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Edge
-1.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.44
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.7%
Edge
-0.1
L10
70%

Rifler · IGL
JT
Liquid vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 23
BEST UNDER · PP 23PP23UD22.5
▲ L5 22.4 · L20 20.4Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 23 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
71%
10/14
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±8.14
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
0/1 hit · avg 36 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 13-16 · Inferno 16-12 · Split
36
Over 23 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
20.4
10/14 hit at 23
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm JT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 22 kills or fewer: below 0.517 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.62
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
23
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
57%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 21-25
All players · Kills
31.9%47 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.28) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.4 kills vs line 21.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.52, HS 56%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 22.4 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 21.62 vs line 23 → -1.38 (-6.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
10.18
HS/Map
5.71
K/D
0.78
KPR
0.52
ADR
61.5
KAST
73.6%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
10.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)11 · KPR 0.476 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)10.3 · KPR 0.493 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.517
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.54
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.20%
Final projected kills21.28
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 23. Model: 56.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.3%
~18 kills · 37r75.3%
Normal53.4%
~23 kills · 47r52.2%
Close maps2.7%
~23 kills · 48r50.6%
Overtime10.6%
~26 kills · 54r36.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.4r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.1r
-5% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.3%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23 (Under) · avg 22.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
23
Nearby lines
| 21 Under | 40.9% | below BE |
| 22 Under | 45.6% | below BE |
| 23 Under | 48.3% | OFFERED |
| 24 Under | 51% | below BE |
| 25 Under | 53.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23
Line movement
first 21.5→23+1.5
- Back on board20.5 → 23Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled20.5Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board20.5 → 20.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled20.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Moved down21.5 → 20.5Oct 24, 05:21 AM
- First seen21.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
68.3%
K/D
0.87
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.93
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.55
HS%
50%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.47
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.65
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
48.9%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.65
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.34
HS%
60%
K/D
0.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 26 Inferno 16-12 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 1 Inferno 7-13 | 9 Cache 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 13 Mirage 13-11 | 18 Cache 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 3 Dust2 0-13 | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 13 Cache 16-13 | 8 Anubis 13-2 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 11 Cache 13-9 | 6 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































