KillsPlayable
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.88
Hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.5%
Edge
+3.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.43
Hit
66.7%
EV+
+15.6%
Edge
+2.9
L10
80%

Rifler
Wicadia
Aurora vs The MongolZ
PLAYABLE · OVER 32.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP32.5UD32.5
▲ L5 36.8 · L20 33.8
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.06
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
1/1 hit · avg 37 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
37
Over 32.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
33.8
11/20 hit at 32.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Wicadia is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.719 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
35.88
Raw edge
+3.4
Cons. hit
61.5%
EV+
+6.5%
Rating
7.6/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
32.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
61.5%
-1.8 →
Learned
59.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
57.2%138 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (35.49) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.4 kills vs line 33.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 55%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 33.4 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 35.88 vs line 32.5 → +3.38 (10.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.88
HS/Map
9.25
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.77
ADR
81.9
KAST
71.2%
HS%
54.8%
Multi-kill
20.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)18.3 · KPR 0.784 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)17.2 · KPR 0.789 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.719
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.55
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills35.49
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 68.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~30 kills · 38r32.8%
Normal42.8%
~35 kills · 45r67.7%
Close maps22.8%
~38 kills · 48r82.3%
Overtime12.2%
~43 kills · 54r94.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 33.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 64.2% | |
| 31.5 Over | 63% | |
| 32.5 Over | 61.5% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 59.4% | |
| 34.5 Over | 55.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 33.5→32.5-1
- Back on board33.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled33.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen33.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.79
HS%
57.2%
K/D
1.21
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
47.2%
K/D
1.23
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1.23
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.23
Cache
5 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.87
HS%
63%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 26 Inferno 16-12 | 11 Nuke 2-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 23 Dust2 19-17 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 16 Cache 13-11 | 20 Inferno 13-4 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 23 Cache 13-9 | 22 Dust2 13-7 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 3 Nuke 1-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 25 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 17 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 18 Dust2 13-9 | 16 Anubis 13-8 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 18 Mirage 13-4 | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 10 Mirage 4-13 | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 17 Dust2 13-3 | 23 Mirage 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 14 Anubis 4-13 | 23 Inferno 13-11 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 12 Anubis 13-7 | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 20 Cache 13-7 | 17 Mirage 19-17 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 16 Nuke 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 19 Anubis 13-7 | 22 Inferno 16-19 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 16 Dust2 13-3 | 14 Inferno 13-5 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 23 Cache 13-7 | 23 Mirage 16-12 | 46 | W | Over ✓ | OT |







































































































































































