KillsLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.27
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+2.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.69
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Edge
+2.2
L10
50%

Rifler
zesta
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
LEAN · OVER 16.5
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP17.5UD16.5SL16.5
≈ L5 17.8 · L20 17.8
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.39
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.1
7/12 hit at 16.5
Online
17.3
4/8 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Zesta is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~29 kills at 59.3% HS): 0.621 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.69
Raw edge
+2.2
Cons. hit
61%
EV+
+5.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
16.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61%
+7.9 →
Learned
68.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.07) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.1 headshots vs line 16.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 59%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.1 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 18.69 vs line 16.5 → +2.19 (13.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.97
HS/Map
8.88
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.71
ADR
75.9
KAST
70.7%
HS%
59.3%
Multi-kill
18.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)10.4 · KPR 0.741 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)8.6 · KPR 0.702 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills32.16
× realistic HS% (59.3%)18.69
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-4.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 69.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~16 HS · 38r40.5%
Normal50.8%
~19 HS · 46r70.8%
Close maps10.3%
~20 HS · 48r77.3%
Overtime12.2%
~23 HS · 54r89.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
+5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 18.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 65.9% | |
| 15.5 Over | 64.3% | |
| 16.5 Over | 61% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 57.4% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
60%
K/D
1.22
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.75
HS%
59.4%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.1%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.56
HS%
67.1%
K/D
0.78
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.45
HS%
70%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 13 Ancient 11-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Ancient 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 2 Inferno 1-13 | 11 Cache 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 3 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 14 Dust2 19-17 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 8 Cache 13-7 | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 10 Inferno 12-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 13 Ancient 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 11 Nuke 22-20 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 11 Ancient 14-16 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 4 Cache 7-13 | 12 Inferno 13-4 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-3 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































