KillsPlayable
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.9
Hit
64.8%
EV+
+12.2%
Edge
+3.9
L10
80%
HeadshotsTake
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.63
Hit
65.2%
EV+
+13.0%
Edge
+3.1
L10
80%

Rifler
NAF
Liquid vs MOUZ
TAKE · OVER 13.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP13.5UD13.5
▲ L5 17.0 · L20 14.5
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
71%
10/14
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.34
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 20 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 13-16 · Inferno 16-12 · Split
20
Over 13.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.5
10/14 hit at 13.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm NAF is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~27 kills at 52.5% HS): 0.578 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 24.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (33.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.63
Raw edge
+3.1
Cons. hit
65.2%
EV+
+13.0%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
13.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
65.2%
+2.7 →
Learned
67.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
60.7%224 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 76.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.47) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.4 headshots vs line 12.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 52%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.4 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 16.63 vs line 13.5 → +3.13 (23.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
13.82
HS/Map
7.25
K/D
1.23
KPR
0.7
ADR
77.6
KAST
78.3%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.6 · KPR 0.705 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.9 · KPR 0.723 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.578
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.20%
Final projected kills31.37
× realistic HS% (52.5%)16.63
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 76.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.3%
~14 HS · 37r53%
Normal53.4%
~18 HS · 47r82.7%
Close maps2.7%
~18 HS · 48r84%
Overtime10.6%
~20 HS · 54r93%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.3%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 16.4 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 66.6% | |
| 12.5 Over | 66.1% | |
| 13.5 Over | 65.2% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 63.7% | |
| 15.5 Over | 60% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 12.5→13.5+1
- Back on board12.5 → 13.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board12.5 → 12.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- First seen12.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
63%
K/D
1.53
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
40%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.39
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.65
HS%
43.3%
K/D
0.83
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.72
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.11
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 10 Inferno 16-12 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 11 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 1 Cache 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Cache 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 4 Dust2 0-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 8 Cache 16-13 | 9 Anubis 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 2 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 4 Cache 13-9 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 3 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 3 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































