KillsBetter playPlayable
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.94
Hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.6%
Edge
-3.6
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.93
Hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.7%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%

Rifler
KusMe
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
PLAYABLE · UNDER 28.5
≈ L5 27.8 · L20 28.0
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.92
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28
11/20 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KusMe is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.748 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.94
Raw edge
-3.6
Cons. hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.6%
Rating
7.4/10
Exp. rounds
38.1
Line
28.5
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
58.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
49.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.8 kills vs line 28.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 55%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 27.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 24.94 vs line 28.5 → -3.56 (-12.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14
HS/Map
7.7
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.68
ADR
74
KAST
75.2%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.2 · KPR 0.595 · 19r
Map 2 (Cache)12.5 · KPR 0.661 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.748
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.93
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.87%
Final projected kills23.72
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 67.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~21 kills · 32r86.3%
Normal57.6%
~26 kills · 39r67.7%
Close maps10.5%
~27 kills · 41r62%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 47r42.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19r
-6% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
38.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 27.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 49% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 53.8% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 58.1% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 60.1% | |
| 30.5 Under | 61.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.99
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.29
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.86
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.53
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.85
HS%
55%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Cache 4-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Cache 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 20 Cache 13-5 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 13 Cache 13-9 | 19 Anubis 16-13 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-0 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 11 Anubis 6-13 | 7 Dust2 0-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 22 Mirage 13-10 | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 22 Nuke 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 5 Anubis 13-7 | 17 Cache 13-9 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | 300FPS | 26 Mirage 16-14 | 9 Cache 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































