KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.43
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.9%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
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Rifler · IGL
kyxsan
Aurora vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 24.5
BEST UNDER · PP 24.5PP24.5UD23.5
≈ L5 24.4 · L20 23.5Risk · Edge -1.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 24.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.55
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
1/1 hit · avg 17 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
17
Under 24.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
23.5
12/20 hit at 24.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kyxsan is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.542 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.43
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.9%
Rating
2.4/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
24.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
59%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
41.3%138 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.01) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.2 kills vs line 23.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 56%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 22.2 against a 23.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.43 vs line 24.5 → -1.07 (-4.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.75
HS/Map
6.53
K/D
0.81
KPR
0.51
ADR
61.5
KAST
71.7%
HS%
55.5%
Multi-kill
11.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.8 · KPR 0.506 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)11.2 · KPR 0.514 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.542
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills23.01
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 24.5. Model: 56.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~20 kills · 38r81.3%
Normal42.8%
~23 kills · 45r61.1%
Close maps22.8%
~25 kills · 48r48.6%
Overtime12.2%
~28 kills · 54r30.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Under) · avg 22.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Under | 41% | below BE |
| 23.5 Under | 44.7% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 50.3% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Under | 53.8% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 58.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24.5
Line movement
first 23.5→24.5+1
- Back on board23.5 → 24.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled23.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen23.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.5
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.76
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.7%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
9.3
KPR
0.47
HS%
66.2%
K/D
0.65
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
6.2
KPR
0.36
HS%
52%
K/D
0.44
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 15 Inferno 16-12 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 10 Anubis 8-13 | 21 Dust2 19-17 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 19 Cache 13-11 | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 13 Cache 13-9 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 1 Nuke 1-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Cache 7-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 10 Mirage 13-4 | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 15 Mirage 13-11 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 5 Anubis 4-13 | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 13 Anubis 13-7 | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 8 Cache 13-7 | 21 Mirage 19-17 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 11 Nuke 13-8 | 21 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Inferno 16-19 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 11 Cache 13-7 | 27 Mirage 16-12 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































