KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.41
Hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Edge
+2.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.84
Hit
60%
EV+
+4.0%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%

Rifler
iM
Natus Vincere vs G2
RISK · OVER 12.5
BEST OVER · PP 12.5PP12.5UD13.5
≈ L5 12.8 · L20 13.2Risk · Edge +1.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Low
±3.16
Previous meeting · vs G2
2/3 hit · avg 15.3 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
10
Under 12.5 ✗
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
15
Over 12.5 ✓
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
21
Over 12.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.2
12/20 hit at 12.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm iM is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~28 kills at 46.2% HS): 0.595 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.84
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
60%
EV+
+4.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
60%
+8 →
Learned
68%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
59.8%189 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.29) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.8 headshots vs line 13.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 46%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.8 against a 13.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.84 vs line 12.5 → +1.34 (10.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.28
HS/Map
6.6
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.67
ADR
74.4
KAST
74.9%
HS%
46.2%
Multi-kill
14.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)7.3 · KPR 0.72 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)7 · KPR 0.655 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.595
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.25
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills30.93
× realistic HS% (46.2%)13.84
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 66.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~12 HS · 38r38.3%
Normal46.6%
~14 HS · 47r66.1%
Close maps18.9%
~15 HS · 49r71.1%
Overtime7.8%
~17 HS · 55r83.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
+7% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
-2% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 12.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.8% | |
| 11.5 Over | 64.4% | |
| 12.5 Over | 60% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 53.9% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 42.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 13→12.5-0.5
- Back on board12.5 → 12.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board13 → 12.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled13Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen13Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
51.4%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.9%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
50%
K/D
0.99
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
50%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
42.4%
K/D
0.93
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
38.9%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 12 Inferno 13-8 | 6 Cache 10-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 6-13 | 8 Anubis 19-15 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-6 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 5-13 | 8 Nuke 13-5 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 3 Cache 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 9 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 5 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 4 Anubis 13-4 | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 2 Ancient 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Ancient 16-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 1-13 | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 6 Mirage 13-3 | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 4 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Anubis 13-11 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































