KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.17
Hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.4%
Edge
-1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.7
Hit
42.4%
EV+
-26.6%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
mlhzin
Yawara Esports vs Grêmio
RISK · UNDER 14.5
▼ L5 13.2 · L20 15.1Risk · Edge -0.8 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.24
Previous meeting · vs Grêmio
No meeting with Grêmio in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
12.5
1/2 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
15.3
8/18 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm mlhzin is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 52% HS): below 0.659 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.7
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
42.4%
EV+
-26.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.3
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.4%
-8.2 →
Learned
34.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.91) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.1 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 52%. Next: vs Grêmio, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.1 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.7 vs line 14.5 → -0.8 (-5.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.3 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.47
HS/Map
7.53
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.62
ADR
73.7
KAST
73.1%
HS%
52%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.6 · KPR 0.606 · 21.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.3 · KPR 0.674 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.659
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.13%
Final projected kills26.75
× realistic HS% (52%)13.7
Grêmio gives up (54 series)+10.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 55.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.8%
~12 HS · 36r73.8%
Normal53.9%
~14 HS · 43r58%
Close maps3.9%
~15 HS · 45r53.6%
Overtime14.4%
~17 HS · 51r41.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.3r
-2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21r
+9% KPR here
Total
42.3r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 32.7% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 36.5% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 42.4% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 48.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 51.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
44%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.78
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.87
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
64.5%
K/D
0.87
Cache
3 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.63
HS%
49%
K/D
0.88
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.02
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
41.9%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Yawara | 8 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | EHISTO BASE | 1 Dust2 1-13 | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | ShindeN | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Nuke 4-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-05 | Imperial | 3 Dust2 16-13 | 3 Cache 8-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Isurus | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | BORRACHEIROS | -1 Dust2 13-10 | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Procyon | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | paiN Academy | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-23 | Isurus | 12 Cache 14-16 | 9 Ancient 13-4 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-19 | Patins da Ferrari | 5 Ancient 13-11 | 3 Dust2 16-14 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-17 | Patins da Ferrari | 10 Cache 16-14 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-14 | METANOIA Wolves | 11 Mirage 13-1 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-08 | Patins da Ferrari | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-07 | UNO MILLE | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-30 | Patins da Ferrari | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-28 | MIBR Academy | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 24 Nuke 10-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-03 | Fluxo | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 25 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-01 | Fluxo | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-27 | Keyd Stars | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 6 Nuke 13-16 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-04-26 | MIBR Academy | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 6 Mirage 13-1 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |









































































































































































