KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32
Hit
54%
EV+
-6.4%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.52
Hit
44.1%
EV+
-23.6%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%

Rifler
jocab
FOKUS vs ex-6666
RISK · OVER 31.5
▼ L5 32.2 · L20 34.1Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
67%
10/15
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.68
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
1/1 hit · avg 35 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
35
Over 31.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
29.5
2/4 hit at 31.5
Online · this match
35.7
8/11 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jocab is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.705 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
54%
EV+
-6.4%
Rating
4.3/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
31.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
57.7%213 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.92) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.5 kills vs line 31.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 45%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 33.5 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32 vs line 31.5 → +0.5 (1.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
17.03
HS/Map
7.73
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.73
ADR
77.9
KAST
80.1%
HS%
45.4%
Multi-kill
19.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)16.2 · KPR 0.707 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)15.7 · KPR 0.716 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.705
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.8
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills31.92
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 52.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~27 kills · 38r22.2%
Normal51.6%
~31 kills · 44r47.8%
Close maps12.7%
~34 kills · 48r63.7%
Overtime15.7%
~39 kills · 54r82.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.9r
-3% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 33.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 60.4% | |
| 30.5 Over | 58.3% | |
| 31.5 Over | 54% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 51.1% | below BE |
| 33.5 Over | 48.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 31.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.15
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.15
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
50%
K/D
1.38
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.04
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.97
HS%
45.9%
K/D
1.74
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.95
HS%
28.6%
K/D
1.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ex-6666 | 21 Ancient 13-3 | 14 Nuke 16-13 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | UNiTY | 15 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 17 Cache 16-13 | 21 Nuke 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BBL | 10 Nuke 13-5 | 7 Cache 4-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | Nemiga | 14 Dust2 6-13 | 30 Mirage 20-22 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 18 Anubis 13-11 | 26 Cache 13-7 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | SPARTA | 19 Dust2 14-16 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | Sangal | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 19 Nuke 11-13 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Astralis | 20 Cache 11-13 | 14 Ancient 8-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Sashi | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 19 Nuke 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Sashi | 26 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Leo | 10 Cache 13-5 | 25 Anubis 13-2 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | Virtus.pro | 23 Cache 13-11 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 1win | 24 Cache 19-17 | 18 Anubis 13-11 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 13 Cache 13-11 | 12 Mirage 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✗ |








































































































































































