KillsBetter playTake
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23
Hit
64%
EV+
+10.9%
Edge
-6.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.6
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-4.0%
Edge
-1.9
L10
50%

Rifler
JOTA
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
LEAN · UNDER 14.5
▲ L5 14.4 · L20 13.7
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
57%
8/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.14
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
13.2
6/10 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
15
2/4 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm JOTA is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 54.7% HS): below 0.694 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.6
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
55.5%
EV+
-4.0%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
38.2
Line
14.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
55.5%
-8.7 →
Learned
46.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.83) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.2 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 55%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 14.2 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.6 vs line 14.5 → -1.9 (-13.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.2 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 7.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
12.54
HS/Map
6.86
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.63
ADR
78.1
KAST
72.1%
HS%
54.7%
Multi-kill
14.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.6 · KPR 0.544 · 19r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.2 · KPR 0.597 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.694
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.8
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.81%
Final projected kills21.63
× realistic HS% (54.7%)12.6
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 67.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.7%
~11 HS · 32r86.1%
Normal55.4%
~13 HS · 39r66.9%
Close maps11.3%
~14 HS · 41r62%
Overtime7.6%
~16 HS · 47r43.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 35% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19.2r
+1% KPR here
Total
38.2r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.9%
Overtime7.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 14.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 41.2% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 46.7% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 55.5% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 60.6% | |
| 16.5 Under | 62.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
65.5%
K/D
0.83
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.5%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
36.9%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.6%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.54
HS%
60%
K/D
0.71
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.68
HS%
50%
K/D
1.12
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | MEIA NOITE | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | MEIA NOITE | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-03 | Gaimin Gladiators | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-22 | Inner Circle | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 11 Overpass 15-19 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-05-22 | Gaimin Gladiators | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Overpass 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-04-05 | Gaimin Gladiators | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-03-30 | paiN | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-03-30 | Legacy | 2 Dust2 4-13 | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-29 | Gaimin Gladiators | 2 Inferno 13-6 | 4 Dust2 13-1 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-26 | MIBR | 7 Ancient 12-16 | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-03-26 | Gaimin Gladiators | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-03-14 | Gaimin Gladiators | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 5 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ |









































































































































































