KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.2
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.13
Hit
52%
EV+
-9.9%
Edge
-0.4
L10
70%

AWPer
YumsaN
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 9.5
▲ L5 10.8 · L20 9.2Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.1
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
9.2
11/20 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm YumsaN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 30.1% HS): below 0.822 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.13
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
52%
EV+
-9.9%
Rating
3/10
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52%
-8.7 →
Learned
43.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
44.4%72 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (8.42) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.0 headshots vs line 9.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 30%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 9.0 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.13 vs line 9.5 → -0.37 (-3.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
4.6
K/D
1.33
KPR
0.8
ADR
84
KAST
79.6%
HS%
30.1%
Multi-kill
21.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)4.5 · KPR 0.78 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Cache)4 · KPR 0.693 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.822
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.28
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.09%
Final projected kills27.97
× realistic HS% (30.1%)9.13
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 54.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~8 HS · 32r75.3%
Normal53.4%
~9 HS · 39r53.9%
Close maps16.9%
~10 HS · 41r48.9%
Overtime5.6%
~11 HS · 47r32.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 9.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 29.1% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 38.3% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 52% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 58.6% | |
| 11.5 Under | 63.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→offno change
- Pulled9.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen9.5Oct 23, 08:32 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.84
HS%
32.8%
K/D
1.66
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
29.2%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
26.3%
K/D
1.22
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.63
HS%
33%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
23%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.89
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 3 Cache 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 7 Mirage 19-16 | 2 Cache 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 1 Cache 13-9 | 4 Anubis 16-13 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-0 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 1 Dust2 0-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 2 Ancient 13-6 | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Anubis 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 1 Mirage 13-8 | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 7 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 2 Anubis 6-13 | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 1 Cache 13-9 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | ex-RUBY | 3 Dust2 13-10 | 8 Cache 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 6 Ancient 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 10 | W | Over ✗ |







































































































































































