KillsRisk
Line
22
Pick
OVER
Projection
23
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Edge
+1.0
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.51
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
#177Ranked 177 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
Aleksib
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
RISK · OVER 22
BEST OVER · UD 21.5PP22UD21.5SL21.5
▲ L5 24.8 · L20 21.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 22 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.08
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.8
8/20 hit at 22
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Aleksib is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 23+ kills: 0.523 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
23
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
22
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.5%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 20-24
All players · Kills
70.4%27 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.22) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.8 kills vs line 22.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.49, HS 51%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.8 against a 22.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23 vs line 22 → +1 (4.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.88
HS/Map
5.6
K/D
0.85
KPR
0.49
ADR
60.5
KAST
75.7%
HS%
51.5%
Multi-kill
9.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.4 · KPR 0.544 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)10.8 · KPR 0.52 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.523
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.79%
Final projected kills22.22
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 22. Model: 54.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~19 kills · 35r29.8%
Normal46.9%
~24 kills · 43r51.4%
Close maps16.7%
~25 kills · 45r57.3%
Overtime10%
~28 kills · 51r72.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
21.2r
+12% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
+7% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 22 (Over) · avg 21.8 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
22
Nearby lines
| 20 Over | 56.9% | below BE |
| 21 Over | 54.3% | below BE |
| 22 Over | 49.5% | OFFERED |
| 23 Over | 46.5% | below BE |
| 24 Over | 43.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 22
Line movement
first 22→22no change
- First seen22Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.56
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.53
HS%
67.5%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.85
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.39
HS%
59%
K/D
0.65
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.5
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.81
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
44.7%
K/D
0.8
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.4
HS%
50%
K/D
0.74
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 29 Dust2 22-19 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 17 Anubis 19-15 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 8 Nuke 13-5 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 6 Ancient 2-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 26 Inferno 14-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 8 Nuke 8-13 | 18 Ancient 16-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 1-13 | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 2 Mirage 13-3 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 15 Ancient 13-8 | 13 Nuke 13-6 | 28 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































