KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.93
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.1%
Edge
-1.6
L10
20%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.02
Hit
38.1%
EV+
-34.0%
Edge
+0.5
L10
20%
#228Ranked 228 of 277 on the board

Rifler
NAF
Liquid vs FUT
RISK · UNDER 27.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP27.5UD27.5SL27.5
▲ L5 29.8 · L20 27.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
36%
5/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.68
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.6
5/14 hit at 27.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm NAF is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.705 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.93
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.1%
-8.5 →
Learned
37.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.7% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.27) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.1 kills vs line 27.0 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 52%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.1 against a 27.0 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.93 vs line 27.5 → -1.57 (-5.7%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 20% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
13.82
HS/Map
7.25
K/D
1.23
KPR
0.7
ADR
77.6
KAST
78.3%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)13.4 · KPR 0.68 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)10.9 · KPR 0.587 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.705
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.94%
Final projected kills24.27
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 60.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.1%
~22 kills · 33r88.1%
Normal46.6%
~28 kills · 42r47.4%
Close maps2.7%
~28 kills · 42r49.3%
Overtime10.6%
~32 kills · 48r23.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.9r
-11% KPR here
Total
39r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 30.1 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 38.2% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 42.2% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 46.1% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 49.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 53.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27→27.5+0.5
- Moved up27 → 27.5Oct 25, 04:16 AM
- First seen27Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
63%
K/D
1.53
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
40%
K/D
1.15
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.18
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.39
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.65
HS%
43.3%
K/D
0.83
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.72
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.11
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 21 Ancient 13-16 | 12 Inferno 16-12 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Dust2 10-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 21 Nuke 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 19 Cache 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 10 Dust2 0-13 | 21 Inferno 13-8 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 16 Anubis 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 20 Cache 16-13 | 15 Anubis 13-2 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 16 Inferno 13-3 | 11 Cache 13-4 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 11 Cache 13-9 | 17 Inferno 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































