KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.93
Hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.1%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.31
Hit
41.9%
EV+
-27.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
krabeni
FUT vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 17.5
BEST UNDER · UD 18.5PP17.5UD18.5SL18.5
▲ L5 18.8 · L20 16.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
80%
16/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.87
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.6
12/16 hit at 17.5
Online
15.5
4/4 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Krabeni is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 56.9% HS): below 0.765 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.31
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
41.9%
EV+
-27.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41.9%
+6 →
Learned
47.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%204 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.67) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.0 headshots vs line 17.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 57%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.0 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.31 vs line 17.5 → -0.19 (-1.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.4
HS/Map
8.2
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.1
KAST
74.2%
HS%
56.9%
Multi-kill
16.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.6 · KPR 0.789 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.1 · KPR 0.685 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.765
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.54
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.80%
Final projected kills29.3
× realistic HS% (56.9%)17.31
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 51.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~15 HS · 34r78.2%
Normal59.4%
~18 HS · 41r50.4%
Close maps10.5%
~19 HS · 43r42.4%
Overtime7.8%
~21 HS · 49r22.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.2r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21r
-12% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 18.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Under | 21.9% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 29.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 41.9% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Under | 47.9% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 55.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17→17.5+0.5
- Moved up17 → 17.5Oct 25, 04:12 AM
- First seen17Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
58.2%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
53.6%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.81
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
55.9%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.92
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.4
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.51
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.3%
K/D
0.88
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.78
HS%
72.2%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 3 Nuke 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 13 Cache 13-10 | 9 Anubis 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 16-13 | 7 Ancient 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Nuke 12-16 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-19 | Poland | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 2 Dust2 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 7 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 4 Overpass 5-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Overpass 2-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 12 Anubis 13-11 | 3 Overpass 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































