KillsBetter playTake
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.78
Hit
66.7%
EV+
+15.6%
Edge
+6.3
L10
80%
HeadshotsTake
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.08
Hit
66%
EV+
+14.4%
Edge
+2.6
L10
80%

Rifler
amster
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
TAKE · OVER 13.5
▲ L5 17.2 · L20 15.4
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.01
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
1/1 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
16
Over 13.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.4
14/20 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm amster is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~29 kills at 48.1% HS): 0.624 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 26.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.08
Raw edge
+2.6
Cons. hit
66%
EV+
+14.4%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
13.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
66%
+7.4 →
Learned
73.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
60.7%224 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 80.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.6 headshots vs line 13.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 48%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.6 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 16.08 vs line 13.5 → +2.58 (19.1%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.05
HS/Map
7.72
K/D
1.13
KPR
0.72
ADR
79.1
KAST
74.6%
HS%
48.1%
Multi-kill
20.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.5 · KPR 0.743 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.1 · KPR 0.7 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.624
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.06%
Final projected kills32.42
× realistic HS% (48.1%)16.08
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 80.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~14 HS · 38r48.1%
Normal38.6%
~16 HS · 44r68.8%
Close maps24.8%
~17 HS · 48r80.6%
Overtime14.4%
~19 HS · 54r90.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21r
+2% KPR here
M2 Nuke
24r
-3% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 15.6 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 67.3% | |
| 12.5 Over | 67% | |
| 13.5 Over | 66% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 64.3% | |
| 15.5 Over | 59.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen13.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1.04
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.78
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
50%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
19.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
51%
K/D
1.15
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
38.9%
K/D
0.92
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 10 Nuke 13-16 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 4 Mirage 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Inferno 14-16 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 5 Anubis 8-13 | 3 Mirage 11-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 7 Nuke 11-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Dust2 13-2 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 7 Dust2 4-13 | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 9 Anubis 13-5 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 7 Nuke 16-14 | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Inferno 16-12 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 7 Dust2 4-13 | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 14 Anubis 16-13 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 2 Anubis 3-13 | 7 Dust2 13-9 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Bebop | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 10 Nuke 16-12 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































