KillsBetter playLean
Line
24
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.45
Hit
57.6%
EV+
-0.3%
Edge
+2.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.45
Hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.1%
Edge
+1.4
L10
60%
#90Ranked 90 of 277 on the board

Rifler
cobrazera
The MongolZ vs Vitality
RISK · OVER 14
BEST OVER · SL 13.5PP14SL13.5
▼ L5 16.4 · L20 17.6Risk · Edge +1.4 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.54
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
No meeting with Vitality in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.6
14/20 hit at 14
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cobrazera is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 19.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~26 kills at 58.7% HS): 0.568 KPR over ~42 rounds. His Kills line is 23.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.45
Raw edge
+1.4
Cons. hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.1%
Rating
3.6/10
Exp. rounds
42
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.8%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
60.6%216 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.04) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.5 headshots vs line 14.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 59%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.5 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.45 vs line 14 → +1.45 (10.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
8.82
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.7
ADR
76.4
KAST
71.5%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)7.9 · KPR 0.657 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.2 · KPR 0.581 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.568
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.97
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.38%
Final projected kills25.62
× realistic HS% (58.7%)15.45
Vitality gives up (100 series)-6.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 62.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~13 HS · 35r32.9%
Normal38.1%
~16 HS · 43r59.7%
Close maps27.2%
~17 HS · 45r66.4%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 51r81.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 19.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.3r
-12% KPR here
Total
42r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 17.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 64.5% | |
| 13 Over | 62.6% | |
| 14 Over | 54.8% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 49.8% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 44.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→14no change
- First seen14Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
64.2%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
59.6%
K/D
1.22
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.39
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.7
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.18
Overpass
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
63.6%
K/D
1.05
Cache
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 10 Inferno 12-16 | 10 Nuke 13-2 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 5 Cache 4-13 | 3 Inferno 13-3 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 9 Cache 8-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 9 Inferno 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | 5star | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | MIBR | 8 Ancient 13-5 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 7 Overpass 8-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 9 Mirage 16-14 | 13 Overpass 13-3 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | Liquid | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Inferno 13-7 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-20 | B8 | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | Aurora | 8 Overpass 11-13 | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | Falcons | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































