KillsBetter playLean
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.91
Hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.3%
Edge
+2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.71
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%

Rifler · IGL
ztr
FOKUS vs ex-6666
LEAN · OVER 26.5
▲ L5 31.0 · L20 28.3
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
67%
10/15
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±6
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
1/1 hit · avg 37 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
37
Over 26.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
24
2/4 hit at 26.5
Online · this match
29.9
8/11 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ztr is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.593 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.91
Raw edge
+2.4
Cons. hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
26.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.2%
+8 →
Learned
68.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.4 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.3 kills vs line 26.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 48%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 28.3 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 28.91 vs line 26.5 → +2.41 (9.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
14.17
HS/Map
6.83
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.62
ADR
73.2
KAST
72.6%
HS%
48.2%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.7 · KPR 0.597 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)14.4 · KPR 0.653 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.593
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills28.02
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 65.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~24 kills · 38r32%
Normal51.6%
~28 kills · 44r62.5%
Close maps12.7%
~31 kills · 48r77.8%
Overtime15.7%
~35 kills · 54r92%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.9r
+5% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 28.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 65.1% | |
| 25.5 Over | 64% | |
| 26.5 Over | 60.2% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 54% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 50.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
46.7%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
50.6%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.66
HS%
48%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.84
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.8
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ex-6666 | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 24 Nuke 16-13 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | UNiTY | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 17 Cache 13-7 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 16 Cache 16-13 | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BBL | 17 Nuke 13-5 | 9 Cache 4-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | Nemiga | 14 Dust2 6-13 | 20 Mirage 20-22 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | SPARTA | 21 Dust2 14-16 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | Sangal | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 9 Nuke 11-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Astralis | 13 Cache 11-13 | 14 Ancient 8-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Sashi | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Sashi | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Nuke 7-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Leo | 7 Cache 13-5 | 8 Anubis 13-2 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | Virtus.pro | 14 Cache 13-11 | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 1win | 21 Cache 19-17 | 13 Anubis 13-11 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 14 Cache 13-11 | 21 Mirage 13-10 | 35 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































