KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.63
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.0%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.93
Hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.6%
Edge
+0.4
L10
40%
Rifler
k1slll
INOX Division vs Brute
RISK · OVER 28.5
≈ L5 29.2 · L20 29.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.71
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
29.1
7/20 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm k1slll is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.646 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (29.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.63
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.0%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.5%
+2.2 →
Learned
54.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.6%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.82) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.8 kills vs line 28.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 51%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 27.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.63 vs line 28.5 → +1.13 (4.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.53
HS/Map
7.42
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.66
ADR
83.8
KAST
73%
HS%
51.1%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)15.2 · KPR 0.719 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.6 · KPR 0.654 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.646
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.24
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.39%
Final projected kills29.82
Brute gives up (32 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 56.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.4%
~25 kills · 37r23.9%
Normal39.8%
~30 kills · 45r60.9%
Close maps18.6%
~32 kills · 47r69.7%
Overtime12.2%
~36 kills · 53r87.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
21.5r
+10% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 27.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 60% | |
| 27.5 Over | 55.8% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 52.5% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 49% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 43.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 02:12 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.74
HS%
49.7%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
54.4%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.65
HS%
52.2%
K/D
0.8
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.4%
K/D
0.79
Cache
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.67
HS%
38.5%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 28 Dust2 7-13 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Nemiga | 8 Nuke 2-13 | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Black Phoenix | 14 Nuke 8-13 | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | G2 Ares | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | BAKS | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 17 Cache 16-13 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Vexar | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 15 Cache 8-13 | 18 Nuke 11-13 | 33 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | SPARTA | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Inferno 12-16 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | UPGRADE | 11 Anubis 13-8 | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-15 | Drama | 19 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Color | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 18 Dust2 14-16 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-11 | Acend | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 14 Dust2 9-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Black Phoenix | 20 Nuke 13-4 | 6 Dust2 1-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | Nuclear TigeRES | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | The Last Resort | 21 Cache 14-16 | 18 Inferno 13-16 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | INFINITE | 22 Ancient 13-10 | 21 Nuke 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | PCIFIC | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-05 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 20 Nuke 13-8 | 8 Cache 3-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | UNiTY | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | 1win | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Cache 13-8 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ |









































































































































































