KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.84
Hit
40.1%
EV+
-30.6%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.32
Hit
39.7%
EV+
-31.2%
Edge
-0.2
L10
50%
#267Ranked 267 of 277 on the board

AWPer
sh1ro
Team Spirit vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 10.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP10.5UD10.5SL10.5
▼ L5 8.8 · L20 11.1Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.03
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.1
8/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm sh1ro is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 89.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 34.6% HS): below 0.762 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.32
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
39.7%
EV+
-31.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
39.7%
+8.6 →
Learned
48.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.97) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.2 headshots vs line 10.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 35%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.2 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.32 vs line 10.5 → -0.18 (-1.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.05
HS/Map
5.55
K/D
1.33
KPR
0.73
ADR
74.7
KAST
73.4%
HS%
34.6%
Multi-kill
18.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)5.5 · KPR 0.806 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)5.4 · KPR 0.813 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.762
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills31.72
× realistic HS% (34.6%)10.32
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 52.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.4%
~9 HS · 33r74.1%
Normal37.6%
~11 HS · 41r51.9%
Close maps27.2%
~11 HS · 43r45.8%
Overtime7.8%
~13 HS · 49r29.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 89.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.6r
+2% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 10.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 20.7% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 27.9% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 39.7% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 49.4% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 59.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- First seen10.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
35.2%
K/D
1.39
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
32.4%
K/D
1.48
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
37.2%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
35.4%
K/D
1.29
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.73
HS%
31.4%
K/D
1.34
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.76
HS%
36.8%
K/D
1.33
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 2 Anubis 13-10 | 2 Ancient 3-13 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 4 Anubis 6-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 4 Anubis 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-10 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 3 Cache 5-13 | 4 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 4 Mirage 11-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 3 Nuke 13-11 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 5 Ancient 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 2 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 5 Cache 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 4 Cache 10-13 | 9 Anubis 16-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 12 Nuke 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 4 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 2 Cache 9-13 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 5 Ancient 13-3 | 7 Dust2 19-15 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































