KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.69
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
-1.8
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.27
Hit
50.6%
EV+
-12.4%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%

Rifler · IGL
biguzera
paiN vs Galorys
RISK · UNDER 16
▲ L5 15.6 · L20 14.7Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.94
Previous meeting · vs Galorys
1/1 hit · avg 15 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 13-9 · Dust2 13-5 · W
15
Under 16 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.8
11/16 hit at 16
Online
14.3
3/4 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm biguzera is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 54.4% HS): below 0.664 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.27
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
50.6%
EV+
-12.4%
Rating
2.3/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.6%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.13) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.6 headshots vs line 16.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 54%. Next: vs Galorys, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.6 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.27 vs line 16 → -0.73 (-4.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.47
HS/Map
7.33
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.64
ADR
75.2
KAST
72.4%
HS%
54.4%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8 · KPR 0.655 · 22.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.2 · KPR 0.613 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.664
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.04%
Final projected kills27.81
× realistic HS% (54.4%)15.27
Galorys gives up (77 series)-7.9% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 59.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.4%
~13 HS · 37r77.4%
Normal43.9%
~16 HS · 46r49%
Close maps16.7%
~16 HS · 47r43.7%
Overtime10%
~18 HS · 53r26.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 59% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Cache
22.6r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
-5% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 14.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 28.7% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 38.5% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 50.6% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 57.5% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 62.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→offno change
- Pulled16Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen16Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
50.9%
K/D
0.98
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.52
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
61%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1.21
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.75
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 3 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Anubis 16-14 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 8 Cache 7-13 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 2 Inferno 2-13 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 13 Cache 11-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 9 Cache 13-9 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Cache 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Cache 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 5 Cache 11-13 | 10 Nuke 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Mirage 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 3 Mirage 2-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 6 Inferno 12-16 | 5 Nuke 13-3 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 17-19 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 9 Cache 10-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-15 | Phantom | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































