KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.68
Hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.5%
Edge
+1.7
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.84
Hit
64.3%
EV+
+11.3%
Edge
+2.3
L10
70%
#70Ranked 70 of 277 on the board

Rifler
tAk
BRUTE vs INFINITE
RISK · OVER 31
BEST OVER · PP 31PP31UD31.5SL31.5
≈ L5 31.4 · L20 31.3Risk · Edge +1.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 31 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.62
Previous meeting · vs INFINITE
No meeting with INFINITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
29.4
3/5 hit at 31
Online · this match
31.9
7/15 hit at 31
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tAk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.689 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72.5%) or blowout (23.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.68
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.3%
+4.6 →
Learned
60.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29-33
All players · Kills
56.3%215 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (33.24) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.3 kills vs line 31.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 55%. Next: vs INFINITE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 32.3 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.68 vs line 31 → +1.68 (5.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 72.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.65
HS/Map
8.6
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.75
ADR
83.2
KAST
78.1%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.6 · KPR 0.755 · 22.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)16.6 · KPR 0.73 · 22.9r
Required KPR to clear0.689
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.50%
Final projected kills33.24
INFINITE gives up (70 series)+8.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31. Model: 60% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.7%
~28 kills · 38r22.1%
Normal45.5%
~32 kills · 44r53.9%
Close maps14.1%
~35 kills · 48r71%
Overtime16.7%
~39 kills · 54r89.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 55% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.1r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.9r
-2% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep72.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Over) · avg 32.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Over | 62.4% | |
| 30 Over | 60.5% | |
| 31 Over | 56.3% | OFFERED |
| 32 Over | 51% | below BE |
| 33 Over | 47.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
52%
K/D
1.17
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.74
HS%
62%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.72
HS%
50%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.97
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
53.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.85
HS%
50%
K/D
1.65
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | INOX Division | 16 Nuke 13-3 | 15 Dust2 5-13 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | BAKS | 9 Cache 8-13 | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 12 Nuke 13-4 | 12 Mirage 3-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 17 Anubis 13-8 | 19 Mirage 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 20 Mirage 13-16 | 22 Inferno 19-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 18 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 26 Inferno 16-13 | 18 Dust2 13-16 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Anubis 10-13 | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 17 Mirage 13-1 | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 13 Mirage 6-13 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 16 Inferno 10-13 | 16 Cache 16-12 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 21 Anubis 16-14 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Anubis 13-8 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | Permitta | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 20 Mirage 10-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-17 | Nexus | 13 Anubis 13-11 | 25 Inferno 19-15 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | G2 Ares | 16 Ancient 13-3 | 18 Cache 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-04 | G2 Ares | 14 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Inferno 1-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































