KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.38
Hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.3%
Edge
+1.9
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.56
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.2%
Edge
+1.1
L10
60%

Rifler
Matheos
FOKUS vs ex-6666
RISK · OVER 19.5
▲ L5 22.0 · L20 20.3Risk · Edge +1.1 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 19.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
53%
8/15
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.9
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
0/1 hit · avg 16 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
16
Under 19.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
20
3/4 hit at 19.5
Online · this match
20.5
5/11 hit at 19.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Matheos is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 20+ HS (~34 kills at 58.9% HS): 0.741 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 32.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
20.56
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
19.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.8%
+8 →
Learned
65.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 17.5-21.5
All players · Headshots
51.1%88 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 53.3% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 53.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.94) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.5 headshots vs line 19.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 59%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 20.5 against a 19.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 20.56 vs line 19.5 → +1.06 (5.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
17.27
HS/Map
10.17
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.76
ADR
80.6
KAST
76%
HS%
58.9%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)10.3 · KPR 0.763 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)9.7 · KPR 0.746 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.741
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.73
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills33.86
× realistic HS% (58.9%)20.56
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 19.5. Model: 58.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~17 HS · 38r28.9%
Normal51.6%
~20 HS · 44r54.5%
Close maps12.7%
~22 HS · 48r68.9%
Overtime15.7%
~25 HS · 54r85%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
M2 Nuke
21.9r
-2% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 19.5 (Over) · avg 20.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
19.5
Nearby lines
| 17.5 Over | 63.2% | |
| 18.5 Over | 61% | |
| 19.5 Over | 57.8% | OFFERED |
| 20.5 Over | 53.7% | below BE |
| 21.5 Over | 47.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19.5
Line movement
first 19.5→offno change
- Pulled19.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen19.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.76
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
68.4%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.15
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
22.2
KPR
0.82
HS%
65.2%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.67
HS%
59.5%
K/D
1
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.76
HS%
46.4%
K/D
1.22
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ex-6666 | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 10 Nuke 16-13 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | UNiTY | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Cache 16-13 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BBL | 18 Nuke 13-5 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | Nemiga | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 22 Mirage 20-22 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | SPARTA | 7 Dust2 14-16 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | Sangal | 11 Dust2 13-3 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Astralis | 6 Cache 11-13 | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Sashi | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Sashi | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Leo | 11 Cache 13-5 | 3 Anubis 13-2 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | Virtus.pro | 5 Cache 13-11 | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 1win | 18 Cache 19-17 | 12 Anubis 13-11 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 7 Cache 13-11 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 18 | W | Under ✗ |








































































































































































