KillsBetter playTake
Line
33.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
39.81
Hit
66.9%
EV+
+15.9%
Edge
+6.3
L10
90%
HeadshotsTake
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.46
Hit
66.3%
EV+
+14.8%
Edge
+3.0
L10
90%

AWPer
adeX
Alter Ego vs NEXVOID
TAKE · OVER 33.5
SL33.5
▲ L5 43.6 · L20 36.9
Hit rates at 33.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.45
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 32 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
32
Under 33.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
—
no series
Online
36.9
14/20 hit at 33.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm adeX is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 37
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
sleeper · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 34+ kills: 0.779 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
39.81
Raw edge
+6.3
Cons. hit
66.9%
EV+
+15.9%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
43
Line
33.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
66.9%
+7.2 →
Learned
74.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 31.5-35.5
All players · Kills
60%80 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 87.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (38.18) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 40.9 kills vs line 33.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.88, HS 36%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 40.9 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 39.81 vs line 33.5 → +6.31 (18.8%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 90% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
18.45
HS/Map
6.67
K/D
1.34
KPR
0.88
ADR
91
KAST
74.4%
HS%
36.2%
Multi-kill
24.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)19.9 · KPR 0.886 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)18.3 · KPR 0.897 · 20.5r
Required KPR to clear0.779
Base kills (Maps 1-2)38.32
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.37%
Final projected kills38.18
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)+3.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 33.5. Model: 87.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~33 kills · 36r48.4%
Normal45%
~39 kills · 42r81.3%
Close maps25%
~43 kills · 46r91.7%
Overtime10%
~48 kills · 52r98.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22.5r
+1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.5r
+2% KPR here
Total
43r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33.5 (Over) · avg 40.9 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
33.5
Nearby lines
| 31.5 Over | 67.4% | |
| 32.5 Over | 67.3% | |
| 33.5 Over | 66.9% | OFFERED |
| 34.5 Over | 66.6% | |
| 35.5 Over | 65.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 37
Line movement
first 33.5→33.5no change
- First seen33.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.89
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.36
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.9
HS%
42.3%
K/D
1.48
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.92
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.4
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.94
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.59
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.34
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
35.4%
K/D
1.26
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Lynn Vision | 27 Anubis 13-9 | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Just Swing | 24 Cache 10-13 | 27 Dust2 19-15 | 51 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Chinggis Warriors | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | The KnockoutX | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 20 Cache 13-10 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitalem Aerem | 25 Ancient 16-14 | 20 Mirage 13-6 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | The Huns | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 20 Cache 12-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Kaleido | 20 Ancient 13-3 | 23 Dust2 14-16 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-07 | Legion | 19 Dust2 13-2 | 14 Anubis 13-7 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Just Swing | 24 Cache 13-9 | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 18 Mirage 13-8 | 17 Dust2 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Kaleido | 17 Dust2 10-13 | 18 Ancient 13-4 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 14 Inferno 5-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 20 Ancient 13-1 | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | los kogutos | 21 Nuke 13-7 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-02 | Wampirki | 15 Ancient 5-13 | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-30 | KOLESIE | 21 Mirage 10-13 | 11 Overpass 8-13 | 32 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-29 | Betclic | 21 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-28 | Project 91 | 15 Nuke 8-13 | 22 Ancient 13-9 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-27 | Gentle Mates | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ |









































































































































































