KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.65
Hit
45.6%
EV+
-21.0%
Edge
-1.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.59
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Edge
-0.9
L10
50%

Rifler
latto
Legacy vs Nemiga
RISK · UNDER 17.5
BEST UNDER · PP 17.5PP17.5UD16.5
≈ L5 16.6 · L20 16.9Risk · Edge -0.9 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 17.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.38
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.9
12/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm latto is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~34 kills at 53.2% HS): below 0.767 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.59
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.1%
-8.5 →
Learned
37.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%204 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.59) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.3 headshots vs line 17.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 53%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.3 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.59 vs line 17.5 → -0.91 (-5.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.85
HS/Map
8.43
K/D
1.24
KPR
0.74
ADR
80.9
KAST
76.2%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
20.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.4 · KPR 0.738 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.2 · KPR 0.724 · 21.5r
Required KPR to clear0.767
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.36
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.57%
Final projected kills31.18
× realistic HS% (53.2%)16.59
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 17.5. Model: 60.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.2%
~14 HS · 36r82.6%
Normal53.1%
~17 HS · 43r59.4%
Close maps18.9%
~18 HS · 46r49.4%
Overtime7.8%
~20 HS · 52r29.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
21.4r
M2 Dust2
21.5r
-2% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Under) · avg 17.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Under | 26.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 39.1% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 46.1% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Under | 54.4% | below BE |
| 19.5 Under | 59.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 17→17.5+0.5
- Back on board17.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled17.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board17 → 17.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled17Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board17 → 17Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled17Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen17Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
50.6%
K/D
1.37
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.13
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
55.8%
K/D
1.3
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.77
HS%
50%
K/D
1.37
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.65
HS%
55%
K/D
1.05
Cache
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
44%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 10 Nuke 13-16 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-10 | 7 Inferno 5-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 2 Cache 4-13 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 2 Inferno 2-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✓ |







































































































































































