KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.77
Hit
39.5%
EV+
-31.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.32
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%

Rifler
makazze
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
RISK · UNDER 29
BEST UNDER · UD 30.5PP29UD30.5
▲ L5 33.0 · L20 28.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.81
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.8
9/20 hit at 29
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm makazze is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.689 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.77
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
39.5%
EV+
-31.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
39.5%
-3.2 →
Learned
36.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
44.5%299 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.96) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.2 kills vs line 29.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.2 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.77 vs line 29 → -0.23 (-0.8%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.38
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.9
KAST
71.5%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12.1 · KPR 0.573 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)14.9 · KPR 0.719 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.689
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.17
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.79%
Final projected kills26.96
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 51.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~24 kills · 35r80.8%
Normal46.9%
~29 kills · 43r45.2%
Close maps16.7%
~31 kills · 45r35.4%
Overtime10%
~35 kills · 51r14.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Inferno
21.2r
-18% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
+3% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 31.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 25.8% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 32.6% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 39.5% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 50.5% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 55% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.71
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.08
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.13
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
61%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
49%
K/D
0.64
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.27
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 27 Dust2 22-19 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 16 Cache 10-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 31 Anubis 19-15 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 17 Cache 13-6 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 12 Anubis 5-13 | 16 Nuke 13-5 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 15 Cache 13-7 | 12 Inferno 13-4 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 18 Cache 13-10 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 16 Nuke 8-13 | 16 Mirage 7-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 15 Ancient 6-13 | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 18 Mirage 13-11 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 14 Anubis 13-4 | 13 Mirage 6-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 7 Inferno 9-13 | 9 Ancient 2-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 13 Inferno 13-5 | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 18 Inferno 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 15 Nuke 8-13 | 22 Ancient 16-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 1 Dust2 1-13 | 14 Anubis 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 15 Mirage 13-3 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































