KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.23
Hit
60%
EV+
+4.0%
Edge
+2.2
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.3
Hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.2%
Edge
+2.3
L10
70%

Rifler
jL
Vitality vs 9z
LEAN · OVER 14
BEST OVER · PP 14PP14UD15.5
▲ L5 17.0 · L20 15.9
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.43
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 20 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 13-2 · Nuke 13-6 · W
20
Over 14 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.2
13/19 hit at 14
Online
11
0/1 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jL is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 84.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 56.5% HS): 0.604 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (66.5%) or blowout (34.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.3
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
62.4%
EV+
+8.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
14
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62.4%
+7.8 →
Learned
70.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
60.6%216 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout win risk — team 84% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.6 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 56%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.6 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.3 vs line 14 → +2.3 (16.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.07
HS/Map
7.95
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.69
ADR
74.5
KAST
75.3%
HS%
56.5%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)8.2 · KPR 0.705 · 20.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.8 · KPR 0.697 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.604
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.74
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.44%
Final projected kills28.33
× realistic HS% (56.5%)16.3
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 69.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps34.8%
~14 HS · 34r39.8%
Normal42.7%
~17 HS · 43r71.5%
Close maps8.1%
~17 HS · 44r74.7%
Overtime14.4%
~20 HS · 50r88.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 84.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 84% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
20.8r
-6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)34.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 16.6 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 65.5% | |
| 13 Over | 64.4% | |
| 14 Over | 62.4% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 56.1% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 51% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 15.5→14-1.5
- Moved up13.5 → 14Oct 24, 09:10 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 13.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
59.7%
K/D
0.96
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.99
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.66
HS%
56.7%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
62%
K/D
1.22
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.08
Cache
2 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.64
HS%
55.9%
K/D
1
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.4%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 13 Nuke 16-14 | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 12 Dust2 13-2 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 5 Anubis 8-13 | 7 Cache 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-24 | MOUZ | 10 Overpass 13-3 | 5 Ancient 13-1 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-23 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | B8 | 10 Overpass 13-8 | 13 Ancient 22-20 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-22 | MOUZ | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 5 Overpass 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | M80 | 4 Overpass 13-3 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | NRG | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-17 | MOUZ | 0 Mirage 13-2 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | MOUZ | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-15 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Nuke 19-15 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-11 | MOUZ | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 14-16 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-09 | MOUZ | 8 Nuke 16-12 | 9 Mirage 4-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |







































































































































































