KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.6
Hit
42.9%
EV+
-25.6%
Edge
-1.9
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.28
Hit
38.4%
EV+
-33.5%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%

Rifler
noway
Imperial Esports vs paiN Gaming
RISK · UNDER 15.5
▼ L5 15.4 · L20 16.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
36%
5/14
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.84
Previous meeting · vs paiN Gaming
0/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-27 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Anubis 13-4 · Cache 13-11 · W
17
Over 15.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
5/12 hit at 15.5
Online
18
0/2 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm noway is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 69.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 54.5% HS): below 0.66 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (13.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.28
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
38.4%
EV+
-33.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.1
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
38.4%
+6.3 →
Learned
44.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.7% at this line
- Under risk — team 70% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.23) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.0 headshots vs line 15.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 54%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.0 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.28 vs line 15.5 → -0.22 (-1.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.1 rounds · 2-0 56% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.75
HS/Map
8.04
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.69
ADR
74
KAST
76.4%
HS%
54.5%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.2 · KPR 0.601 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)8 · KPR 0.707 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.66
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.12
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.59%
Final projected kills27.95
× realistic HS% (54.5%)15.28
paiN Gaming gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 51.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.1%
~13 HS · 36r75.4%
Normal37.3%
~15 HS · 43r54.5%
Close maps22%
~16 HS · 46r45%
Overtime13.6%
~19 HS · 52r28.5%
Match context
Oct 23, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 69.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 70% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
22.2r
-13% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.9r
+3% KPR here
Total
43.1r
2-0 sweep56%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35.6%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 16.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 27.3% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 33.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 38.4% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 43% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 51.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 23, 09:02 PM
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 23, 07:00 PM
- Moved down16.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 06:59 PM
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 23, 06:59 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 12:59 AM
- Pulled15.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.56
HS%
55.1%
K/D
0.82
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.16
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.94
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.62
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
7.7
KPR
0.38
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.55
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.83
HS%
61.2%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 9 Mirage 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Cache 16-14 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 11 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Nuke 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 9 Cache 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 12 Cache 16-12 | 2 Inferno 13-6 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 8 Nuke 13-3 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 11 Nuke 13-2 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 8 Cache 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Peladona | 11 Dust2 13-16 | 5 Cache 13-8 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































