KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.95
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.4%
Edge
+0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.59
Hit
55.7%
EV+
-3.5%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%

Rifler · IGL
xertioN
MOUZ vs Liquid
RISK · OVER 15.5
BEST OVER · UD 14.5PP15.5UD14.5
▼ L5 14.6 · L20 16.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.94
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
1/1 hit · avg 20 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
20
Over 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
16.7
10/20 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm xertioN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~30 kills at 53.7% HS): 0.644 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.59
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
55.7%
EV+
-3.5%
Rating
3.6/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.7%
+0.2 →
Learned
55.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.44) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.9 headshots vs line 15.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 54%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 14.9 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.59 vs line 15.5 → +1.09 (7.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.55
HS/Map
8.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.68
ADR
76.5
KAST
72%
HS%
53.7%
Multi-kill
16%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)9.6 · KPR 0.775 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.8 · KPR 0.673 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.644
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
Final projected kills32.47
× realistic HS% (53.7%)16.59
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 60.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~14 HS · 38r32.6%
Normal44.8%
~17 HS · 45r58%
Close maps16.4%
~18 HS · 48r68.8%
Overtime14.4%
~20 HS · 54r83.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.1r
+15% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.7r
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 14.9 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 64.6% | |
| 14.5 Over | 61.4% | |
| 15.5 Over | 55.7% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 43.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15→15.5+0.5
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Moved up15 → 15.5Oct 24, 08:14 AM
- First seen15Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1.09
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.66
HS%
51%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.8%
K/D
1.03
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.6%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
58.5%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.59
HS%
61.1%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 11 Ancient 16-13 | 9 Inferno 12-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 10 Cache 8-13 | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 3 Mirage 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 13 Mirage 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 6 Cache 13-4 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 5 Cache 13-9 | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 4 Cache 8-13 | 15 Mirage 19-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 11 Cache 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 9 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 15 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Mirage 13-11 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 13 Ancient 13-4 | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 4 Cache 13-4 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 7 Dust2 13-16 | 4 Ancient 5-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 13 Mirage 13-11 | 24 Ancient 19-22 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 14 Nuke 16-12 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-4 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































