
Rifler
TMKj
G2 Ares vs The Last Resort
RISK · UNDER 30.5
≈ L5 29.8 · L20 29.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
High
±8.76
Previous meeting · vs The Last Resort
0/2 hit · avg 34.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 10-13 · Inferno 13-8 · Split
37
Over 30.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-11 · Cache 13-8 · W
32
Over 30.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
33.3
1/4 hit at 30.5
Online
28.8
9/15 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm TMKj is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.738 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (19.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.24
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
36.2%
EV+
-37.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
36.2%
-7.6 →
Learned
28.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 20% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.43) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 30.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 67%. Next: vs The Last Resort, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.24 vs line 30.5 → -0.26 (-0.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.87
HS/Map
9.89
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.69
ADR
79.6
KAST
73.4%
HS%
66.5%
Multi-kill
16%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)14.5 · KPR 0.7 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Anubis)15.9 · KPR 0.77 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.738
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.35
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.27%
Final projected kills30.43
The Last Resort gives up (40 series)+8.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 51.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~25 kills · 35r77.2%
Normal39.5%
~29 kills · 40r60.1%
Close maps16.7%
~32 kills · 44r43.3%
Overtime19.8%
~37 kills · 50r24.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
-6% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.6r
+3% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 31.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 30.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 33.4% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 36.2% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 40.8% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 45.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 11:39 AM
- Moved down31.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 11:38 AM
- Moved up30.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 11:38 AM
- First seen30.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
67.2%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.04
Cache
8 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
68.5%
K/D
0.85
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.57
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.7
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
67.2%
K/D
1
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.74
HS%
66%
K/D
0.96
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Illyrians | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | mellren | 19 Mirage 13-10 | 23 Ancient 14-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | ex-6666 | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Dust2 2-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | BAKS | 1 Cache 3-13 | 11 Inferno 16-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-14 | The Last Resort | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 21 Inferno 13-8 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Sangal | 23 Anubis 13-16 | 20 Ancient 13-10 | 43 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | NAVI Junior | 15 Anubis 11-13 | 17 Cache 13-5 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | INFINITE | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Ancient 16-14 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | RBLS | 12 Anubis 2-13 | 19 Cache 16-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Famalicão | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 17 Ancient 13-4 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | STATE | 20 Ancient 9-13 | 20 Cache 19-15 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | The Last Resort | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 19 Cache 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | NAVI Junior | 13 Mirage 6-13 | 15 Ancient 16-12 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | INOX Division | 8 Ancient 5-13 | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 14 Dust2 6-13 | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 13 Cache 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | QUAZAR | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 12 Cache 6-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Honvéd | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 18 Dust2 16-12 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | BAKS | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Cache 9-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ |








































































































































































