KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.53
Hit
60.6%
EV+
+4.9%
Edge
+2.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.16
Hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.3%
Edge
+2.2
L10
70%

Rifler
cronuss
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
PLAYABLE · OVER 18
BEST OVER · PP 18PP18SL18.5
≈ L5 19.8 · L20 19.9
Hit rates at 18 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.64
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
19.9
13/20 hit at 18
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cronuss is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Playable
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~31 kills at 62.2% HS): 0.588 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (18.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
20.16
Raw edge
+2.2
Cons. hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.3%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
49.2
Line
18
Verdict
Playable
Plain model
65.4%
-8.3 →
Learned
57.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16-20
All players · Headshots
57.7%149 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 79.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.32) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.8 headshots vs line 18.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 62%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 19.8 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 20.16 vs line 18 → +2.16 (12.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 49.2 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.95
HS/Map
9.93
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.68
ADR
77.8
KAST
68.9%
HS%
62.2%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.4 · KPR 0.674 · 24.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)9.9 · KPR 0.648 · 24.4r
Required KPR to clear0.588
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.43%
Final projected kills32.67
× realistic HS% (62.2%)20.16
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18. Model: 79.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps18.4%
~17 HS · 41r34.2%
Normal50.8%
~20 HS · 48r58.6%
Close maps14.1%
~22 HS · 53r73.4%
Overtime16.7%
~24 HS · 59r86.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 48% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.8r
M2 Mirage
24.4r
-4% KPR here
Total
49.2r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)18.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Over) · avg 19.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Over | 67.2% | |
| 17 Over | 66.5% | |
| 18 Over | 65.4% | OFFERED |
| 19 Over | 61.5% | |
| 20 Over | 50.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18.5
Line movement
first 18→18no change
- First seen18Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.9%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
62.6%
K/D
0.82
Cache
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.77
HS%
65.6%
K/D
0.95
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.71
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
56.4%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
62.3%
K/D
1.26
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 8 Cache 5-13 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Mirage 16-14 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | UPGRADE | 12 Anubis 16-14 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | SPARTA | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 16-13 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Sashi | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Cache 10-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Dust2 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | SPARTA | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 10 Dust2 13-16 | 12 Anubis 6-13 | 22 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Inferno 5-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DENDELE | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | B8 | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 18 Mirage 13-9 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Nuclear TigeRES | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | HYPERSPIRIT | 11 Cache 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Butterfly | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | EAC | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 4 Anubis 14-16 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-23 | SPARTA | 16 Dust2 19-22 | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Inner Circle Academy | 10 Dust2 13-4 | 16 Anubis 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 4 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Cache 4-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Metizport | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 8 Inferno 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-19 | EAC | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































