KillsBetter playTake
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.85
Hit
64.6%
EV+
+11.9%
Edge
+4.3
L10
90%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.53
Hit
61%
EV+
+5.6%
Edge
+2.0
L10
70%
#4Ranked 4 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Xant3r
Nemiga vs BetBoom
TAKE · OVER 26.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP26.5SL26.5
▲ L5 36.8 · L20 32.9
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
80%
16/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.05
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
36
5/5 hit at 26.5
Online
31.9
11/15 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Xant3r is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.642 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (23.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.85
Raw edge
+4.3
Cons. hit
64.6%
EV+
+11.9%
Rating
9.3/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
26.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
64.6%
+7.5 →
Learned
72.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 80.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.3) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.2 kills vs line 26.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 55%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 35.2 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 30.85 vs line 26.5 → +4.35 (16.4%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 90% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.45
HS/Map
9.05
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.73
ADR
80.9
KAST
73.4%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
19.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)12.8 · KPR 0.666 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)15.5 · KPR 0.697 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills28.3
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 73.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~26 kills · 35r44.2%
Normal54%
~31 kills · 41r74.5%
Close maps3.6%
~33 kills · 44r85.6%
Overtime18.9%
~38 kills · 50r95.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
19.2r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
+2% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 35.2 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 66.4% | |
| 25.5 Over | 65.9% | |
| 26.5 Over | 64.6% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 63.5% | |
| 28.5 Over | 59.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 26.5→26.5no change
- First seen26.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
52%
K/D
1.14
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
62%
K/D
1
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.1%
K/D
1.15
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.19
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.2
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
65.1%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 26 Ancient 25-23 | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 16 Cache 7-13 | 22 Nuke 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 23 Cache 13-11 | 18 Dust2 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 13 Cache 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 26 Mirage 16-12 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 26 Mirage 22-20 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 13 Cache 13-5 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 12 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 15 Nuke 13-2 | 28 Ancient 13-10 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 16 Cache 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 8 Cache 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 20 Ancient 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 15 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Cache 13-4 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 19 Dust2 16-13 | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 22 Mirage 16-14 | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































