KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.78
Hit
58%
EV+
+0.5%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.62
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
20%

Rifler
M1key
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · OVER 15.5
PP15.5
≈ L5 14.8 · L20 15.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
37%
7/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.94
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
13.5
0/4 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
15.9
7/15 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm M1key is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~31 kills at 51.2% HS): 0.706 KPR over ~43 rounds. His Kills line is 29.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73%) or blowout (28.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.62
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.5%
+8.7 →
Learned
55.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 20.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 36.8% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 20.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 36.8% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.98) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.6 headshots vs line 15.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 51%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 13.6 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.62 vs line 15.5 → +0.12 (0.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 20% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15
HS/Map
7.68
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.73
ADR
81.5
KAST
72%
HS%
51.2%
Multi-kill
17.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.7 · KPR 0.796 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)7.3 · KPR 0.687 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.706
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.84
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.98%
Final projected kills31.21
× realistic HS% (51.2%)15.62
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.4%
~13 HS · 36r25.2%
Normal52.5%
~16 HS · 45r56.3%
Close maps13.3%
~17 HS · 46r59.9%
Overtime5.8%
~19 HS · 52r77.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
+8% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 13.6 · hit 2/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 14.5 Over | 57.8% | |
| 15.5 Over | 46.5% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 38.5% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 31.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
46.1%
K/D
1.38
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
52.4%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
62.3%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.53
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.14
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.44
HS%
25%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 14 Ancient 13-11 | 4 Cache 6-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 6 Cache 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Mirage 13-6 | 6 Cache 13-11 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 3 Mirage 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 5 Cache 13-4 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 4 Inferno 13-1 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 13 Ancient 16-14 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 12 Cache 13-8 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 13 Mirage 12-16 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 11 Cache 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 2 Nuke 5-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Anubis 13-2 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































