KillsRisk
Line
22.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.18
Hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.3%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.59
Hit
62.5%
EV+
+8.3%
Edge
+1.1
L10
80%

Rifler
PKL
Galorys vs paiN
RISK · OVER 22.5
≈ L5 24.0 · L20 24.1Risk · Edge +1.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 22.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.62
Previous meeting · vs paiN
0/1 hit · avg 17 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
17
Under 22.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.8
4/6 hit at 22.5
Online
23.7
9/14 hit at 22.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm PKL is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 23+ kills: 0.496 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53%) or blowout (22.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.18
Raw edge
+1.7
Cons. hit
60.2%
EV+
+4.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
22.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
60.2%
+8 →
Learned
68.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 20.5-24.5
All players · Kills
68.2%44 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 53% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.26) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.3 kills vs line 22.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 51%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.3 against a 22.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 24.18 vs line 22.5 → +1.68 (7.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.03
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
0.84
KPR
0.58
ADR
65.9
KAST
76.7%
HS%
50.5%
Multi-kill
12.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)11.8 · KPR 0.523 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)12.4 · KPR 0.551 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.496
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills24.26
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 22.5. Model: 61.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~20 kills · 38r30.7%
Normal50.6%
~24 kills · 46r63.4%
Close maps16.7%
~26 kills · 49r73.4%
Overtime10%
~29 kills · 55r88.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
22.7r
-9% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
-4% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 22.5 (Over) · avg 24.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
22.5
Nearby lines
| 20.5 Over | 64.2% | |
| 21.5 Over | 62.6% | |
| 22.5 Over | 60.2% | OFFERED |
| 23.5 Over | 55.3% | below BE |
| 24.5 Over | 51.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 22.5
Line movement
first 22.5→offno change
- Pulled22.5Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board22.5 → 22.5Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled22.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen22.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.51
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.84
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.54
HS%
48.7%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.82
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.54
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.77
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
47.8%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
40.7%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 21 Inferno 11-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 15 Anubis 13-9 | 15 Inferno 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 13 Anubis 8-13 | 15 Inferno 16-14 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Ancient 16-14 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 19 Cache 13-6 | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 10 Anubis 13-4 | 9 Ancient 13-2 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 16 Nuke 13-11 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 23 Ancient 25-28 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 21 Inferno 19-16 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 7-13 | 11 Ancient 13-8 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 12 Cache 9-13 | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































