KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.55
Hit
48.9%
EV+
-15.3%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.74
Hit
39.2%
EV+
-32.1%
Edge
-0.8
L10
30%

Rifler
zont1x
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 25.5
BEST OVER · UD 24.5PP25.5UD24.5
▼ L5 24.0 · L20 25.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.41
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25
9/20 hit at 25.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.576 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (7.8%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.55
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
48.9%
EV+
-15.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.9%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
57%207 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 8% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.21) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.6 kills vs line 24.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 41%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.6 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.55 vs line 25.5 → +0.05 (0.2%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.5
HS/Map
5.12
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.57
ADR
67.9
KAST
70.2%
HS%
41%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13 · KPR 0.568 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)13.2 · KPR 0.607 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.576
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.81%
Final projected kills26.21
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 50.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~22 kills · 37r19.4%
Normal44.5%
~25 kills · 44r48%
Close maps27.2%
~27 kills · 47r62.3%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 53r82.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 66% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
22.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
+6% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 24.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 63.8% | |
| 24.5 Over | 58.9% | |
| 25.5 Over | 48.9% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 36% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 29.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 24.5→25.5+1
- Back on board24.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
41.6%
K/D
0.87
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.9
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.99
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
42.4%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 5 Cache 5-13 | 21 Anubis 9-13 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 20 Ancient 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 15 Cache 10-13 | 17 Anubis 16-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 18 Nuke 14-16 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 14 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 13 Ancient 13-3 | 20 Dust2 19-15 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 11 Mirage 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































