KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.09
Hit
50.8%
EV+
-12.0%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.96
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.8%
Edge
-0.0
L10
50%

Rifler
dexter
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
RISK · OVER 32
PP32
▲ L5 37.6 · L20 29.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 32 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
37%
7/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±8.01
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
1/1 hit · avg 39 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
39
Over 32 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.9
7/13 hit at 32
Online
23.8
0/6 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dexter is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.732 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73%) or blowout (37.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.09
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
50.8%
EV+
-12.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.7
Line
32
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.8%
+8.6 →
Learned
59.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 30-34
All players · Kills
56.9%144 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 36.8% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 36.8% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 32.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 55%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 32.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.09 vs line 32 → +0.09 (0.3%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.7 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.68
HS/Map
8.11
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.74
ADR
84
KAST
71.9%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.1 · KPR 0.713 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)13.6 · KPR 0.677 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.732
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.26%
Final projected kills29.73
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps37.8%
~27 kills · 37r18.4%
Normal38.7%
~35 kills · 47r59.8%
Close maps13%
~34 kills · 47r58.6%
Overtime10.5%
~39 kills · 53r79.4%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 68% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23.1r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.6r
-8% KPR here
Total
43.7r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)37.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Over) · avg 30.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
| 30 Over | 56.4% | below BE |
| 31 Over | 53.7% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 50.8% | OFFERED |
| 33 Over | 45.9% | below BE |
| 34 Over | 41% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 32→32no change
- First seen32Oct 24, 06:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.06
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.91
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
43.6%
K/D
1
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.87
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.79
Cache
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
1.2
HS%
61.1%
K/D
2.57
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 21 Dust2 17-19 | 18 Inferno 9-13 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 16 Nuke 13-7 | 18 Cache 13-2 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 23 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Anubis 11-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 22 Dust2 10-13 | 21 Inferno 16-19 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 6 Inferno 2-13 | 14 Ancient 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Ancient 13-4 | 10 Dust2 13-3 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | FlyQuest | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 5 Nuke 1-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Rooster | 15 Nuke 13-0 | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Inferno 3-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-27 | SemperFi | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-16 | Lynn Vision | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-14 | Kaleido | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-05-13 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16 Anubis 13-5 | 35 Dust2 17-19 | 51 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































