KillsRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
32
Hit
39.1%
EV+
-32.2%
Edge
+0.5
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.52
Hit
50.9%
EV+
-11.9%
Edge
-1.0
L10
50%

Rifler
jocab
FOKUS vs ex-6666
RISK · UNDER 15.5
▼ L5 14.6 · L20 15.5Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
47%
7/15
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.96
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
1/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
12
Under 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
14.8
2/4 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
15.7
5/11 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jocab is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~35 kills at 45.4% HS): below 0.764 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (15.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.52
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
50.9%
EV+
-11.9%
Rating
3.3/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.9%
-2.4 →
Learned
48.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 46.7% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 46.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 16% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.49) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.2 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 45%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.2 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.52 vs line 15.5 → -0.98 (-6.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
17.03
HS/Map
7.73
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.73
ADR
77.9
KAST
80.1%
HS%
45.4%
Multi-kill
19.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.3 · KPR 0.707 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)7.1 · KPR 0.716 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.764
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.8
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills31.92
× realistic HS% (45.4%)14.52
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)-1.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 62.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~12 HS · 38r82.4%
Normal51.6%
~14 HS · 44r64.1%
Close maps12.7%
~16 HS · 48r51.4%
Overtime15.7%
~18 HS · 54r33.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.9r
-3% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 15.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 31.8% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 41.3% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 50.9% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 58.8% | |
| 17.5 Under | 63.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.15
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.15
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
50%
K/D
1.38
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.04
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.97
HS%
45.9%
K/D
1.74
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.95
HS%
28.6%
K/D
1.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ex-6666 | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 6 Nuke 16-13 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | UNiTY | 7 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Cache 16-13 | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BBL | 5 Nuke 13-5 | 6 Cache 4-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | Nemiga | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 11 Mirage 20-22 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 6 Anubis 13-11 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | SPARTA | 8 Dust2 14-16 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | Sangal | 4 Dust2 13-3 | 7 Nuke 11-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Astralis | 14 Cache 11-13 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Sashi | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Sashi | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Leo | 5 Cache 13-5 | 12 Anubis 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | Virtus.pro | 6 Cache 13-11 | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 1win | 12 Cache 19-17 | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Cache 13-11 | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ |








































































































































































