KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.87
Hit
45.3%
EV+
-21.6%
Edge
-0.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.95
Hit
45.6%
EV+
-21.0%
Edge
-0.6
L10
30%

Rifler
spinnie
Grêmio vs Yawara Esports
RISK · UNDER 27.5
≈ L5 30.0 · L20 30.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
44%
7/16
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.69
Previous meeting · vs Yawara Esports
0/1 hit · avg 38 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Ancient 11-13 · Anubis 16-14 · Split
38
Over 27.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.9
7/16 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm spinnie is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.669 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (6.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.87
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
45.3%
EV+
-21.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.1
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.3%
+0.7 →
Learned
46%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 43.8% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 43.8% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 7% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.53) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.8 kills vs line 27.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 56%. Next: vs Yawara Esports, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 31.8 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.87 vs line 27.5 → -0.63 (-2.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.1 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 6.8%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
15.47
HS/Map
8.62
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.7
KAST
73.5%
HS%
55.8%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.8 · KPR 0.604 · 20r
Map 2 (Mirage)13.7 · KPR 0.663 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.669
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.06%
Final projected kills25.53
Yawara Esports gives up (52 series)+7.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 53.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.9%
~23 kills · 35r82%
Normal28.1%
~28 kills · 42r50.6%
Close maps35.2%
~29 kills · 44r43.6%
Overtime6.8%
~33 kills · 50r22%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 32% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
20r
-11% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.1r
-2% KPR here
Total
41.1r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)42%
Overtime6.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 31.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 36.4% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 41.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 45.3% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 48.7% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 51.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Moved up28.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 08:44 PM
- Moved up27.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 06:09 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.62
HS%
58%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
58.4%
K/D
0.93
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.06
Cache
3 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.8
HS%
55.4%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
43.6%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.89
HS%
56.2%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.88
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.08
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 4 Mirage 13-3 | 17 Cache 10-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | JOGA DE TERNO | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 17 Ancient 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | MIBR fe | 13 Anubis 13-11 | 12 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Yawara | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 21 Anubis 16-14 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Galorys | 12 Dust2 5-13 | 21 Ancient 10-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Keyd Stars | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Procyon | 18 Ancient 13-10 | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Isurus | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 25 Cache 10-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | ODDIK | 12 Mirage 5-13 | 13 Ancient 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 37 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MEIA NOITE | 14 Dust2 13-7 | 33 Mirage 20-22 | 47 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-14 | paiN Academy | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 14 Cache 11-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-11 | Red Feet | 21 Mirage 13-11 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | MEIA NOITE | 16 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-04 | BESTIA | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Mirage 5-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-20 | Grêmio | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 14 Nuke 3-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |









































































































































































