KillsBetter playLean
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.48
Hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.5%
Edge
-2.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.68
Hit
38.8%
EV+
-32.7%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%

Rifler
flameZ
Vitality vs 9z
RISK · UNDER 16
BEST UNDER · PP 16PP16UD15.5
▲ L5 16.6 · L20 15.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.99
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 15 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 13-2 · Nuke 13-6 · W
15
Under 16 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.9
9/20 hit at 16
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm flameZ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 84.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 57.9% HS): below 0.739 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.68
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
38.8%
EV+
-32.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.4
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
38.8%
-6.6 →
Learned
32.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.29) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 16.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 58%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.68 vs line 16 → -0.32 (-2.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.4 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.78
HS/Map
7.97
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.73
ADR
75.4
KAST
76%
HS%
57.9%
Multi-kill
18.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.2 · KPR 0.797 · 18.3r
Map 2 (Anubis)7 · KPR 0.653 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.739
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.45%
Final projected kills26.4
× realistic HS% (57.9%)15.68
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 54.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps39.2%
~13 HS · 32r73.9%
Normal34.1%
~17 HS · 41r37.5%
Close maps18.9%
~17 HS · 40r38.9%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 46r19.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 84.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 84% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
18.3r
+1% KPR here
M2 Anubis
19.1r
-17% KPR here
Total
37.4r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)39.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 19.5% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 28.9% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 38.8% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 48.5% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 58.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16.5→16-0.5
- Back on board16.5 → 16Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.23
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.79
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.7
HS%
58.7%
K/D
1.09
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.74
HS%
49.3%
K/D
1.34
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.91
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.9%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 4 Anubis 7-13 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 7 Inferno 13-2 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 7 Anubis 9-13 | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 6 Anubis 13-5 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 10 Dust2 13-1 | 7 Cache 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 13-4 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 7 Cache 13-5 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 4 Cache 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 5 Nuke 16-14 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 6 Dust2 13-2 | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 14 Cache 13-16 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 11 Anubis 11-13 | 14 Nuke 16-14 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Lynn Vision | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 5 Inferno 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |










































































































































































