KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.05
Hit
45.8%
EV+
-20.7%
Edge
-1.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.42
Hit
49.1%
EV+
-15.0%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
#191Ranked 191 of 277 on the board

Rifler
PR
MOUZ vs 9z
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
≈ L5 13.6 · L20 14.2Risk · Edge -1.1 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.75
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 13-4 · Nuke 13-7 · W
12
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.2
11/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm PR is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 51.7% HS): below 0.706 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.42
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
49.1%
EV+
-15.0%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.1%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.34) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.1 headshots vs line 14.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 52%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.1 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.42 vs line 14.5 → -1.08 (-7.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.68
HS/Map
7.08
K/D
1
KPR
0.6
ADR
68.1
KAST
77.1%
HS%
51.7%
Multi-kill
12.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.6 · KPR 0.639 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)6.7 · KPR 0.675 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.706
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills25.81
× realistic HS% (51.7%)13.42
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 61.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.1%
~11 HS · 33r82.8%
Normal37.1%
~14 HS · 41r60%
Close maps16.4%
~14 HS · 43r53.3%
Overtime14.4%
~16 HS · 49r33.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 13.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 34.5% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 42.8% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 49.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 54.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 60.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.59
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.1
KPR
0.52
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.83
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
46.7%
K/D
1.02
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.3%
K/D
1
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.78
HS%
50.7%
K/D
1.15
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 10 Ancient 16-13 | 7 Inferno 12-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 7 Cache 8-13 | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 2 Mirage 13-11 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 5 Cache 13-4 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 4 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 19-16 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 10-13 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 6 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 9 Ancient 13-4 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 5 Dust2 13-16 | 3 Ancient 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Ancient 19-22 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 16 Nuke 16-12 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































