KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.84
Hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.2%
Edge
-2.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.48
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
#75Ranked 75 of 277 on the board

Rifler
dgt
9z vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5SL14.5
▼ L5 11.8 · L20 15.9Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.12
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 4-13 · Nuke 7-13 · L
13
Under 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.9
10/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dgt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 53.2% HS): below 0.671 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.48
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
47.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.2 headshots vs line 15.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 53%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.2 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.48 vs line 14.5 → -1.02 (-7.0%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15
HS/Map
7.97
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.71
ADR
79
KAST
79.1%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)6.8 · KPR 0.671 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.4 · KPR 0.661 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.671
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.03
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills26.68
× realistic HS% (53.2%)13.48
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 62.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.9%
~11 HS · 34r82.5%
Normal47.6%
~14 HS · 42r57.4%
Close maps12.5%
~14 HS · 43r52.7%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 49r33.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.2r
-1% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 14.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 33.3% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 46.9% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 61.2% | |
| 16.5 Under | 64.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 15→14.5-0.5
- Moved down15 → 14.5Oct 25, 02:40 AM
- First seen15Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
58.4%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
48.4%
K/D
1.11
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.62
HS%
57.5%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
51.1%
K/D
1.33
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.4%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.05
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 2 Cache 11-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 4 Mirage 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 5 Nuke 13-1 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 2 Inferno 3-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-2 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 10 Cache 13-3 | 14 Nuke 13-4 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 6 Dust2 2-13 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 15 Ancient 17-19 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 4 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Mirage 16-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 19 Inferno 17-19 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 7 Mirage 16-13 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































