KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.02
Hit
42.5%
EV+
-26.4%
Edge
-0.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.58
Hit
46.8%
EV+
-19.0%
Edge
-0.9
L10
60%

Rifler
chelo
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · UNDER 16.5
▼ L5 13.4 · L20 16.1Risk · Edge -0.9 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
43%
6/14
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±4.41
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
1/2 hit · avg 12.5 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
5
Under 16.5 ✓
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
20
Over 16.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.5
6/13 hit at 16.5
Online
25
0/1 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm chelo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 59.6% HS): below 0.624 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (13.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.58
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
46.8%
EV+
-19.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.8%
+1.7 →
Learned
48.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 42.9% at this line
- Under risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 42.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.52) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.5 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 60%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.5 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.58 vs line 16.5 → -0.92 (-5.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
13.54
HS/Map
8.07
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.61
ADR
71.8
KAST
75.8%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
13.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.9 · KPR 0.576 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.6 · KPR 0.685 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.624
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.89
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills27.71
× realistic HS% (59.6%)15.58
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 58.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~13 HS · 37r82.4%
Normal30.6%
~16 HS · 44r61.6%
Close maps27.5%
~17 HS · 48r50.1%
Overtime13.6%
~19 HS · 54r31.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 64% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
-5% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
+13% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 14.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 32.8% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 39.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 46.8% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 53.5% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 59% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.56
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
69%
K/D
1.16
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.66
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.83
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.04
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.72
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.43
HS%
46.9%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 6 Inferno 13-3 | 11 Anubis 14-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 3 Dust2 13-4 | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 2 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 7 Anubis 13-10 | 13 Cache 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 5 Cache 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 9 Cache 16-12 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 7 Nuke 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Cache 8-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 15 Nuke 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ |








































































































































































