
Rifler
yksjupe
G2 Ares vs The Last Resort
RISK · OVER 26.5
▲ L5 27.8 · L20 26.7Risk · Edge +1.2 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±5.82
Previous meeting · vs The Last Resort
1/2 hit · avg 25.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 10-13 · Inferno 13-8 · Split
27
Over 26.5 ✓
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-11 · Cache 13-8 · W
24
Under 26.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29
3/4 hit at 26.5
Online
26.1
7/15 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm yksjupe is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.642 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.5%) or blowout (24%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.75
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
55.4%
EV+
-4.0%
Rating
4.8/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.4%
-0.7 →
Learned
54.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.5 kills vs line 26.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 50%. Next: vs The Last Resort, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.5 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.75 vs line 26.5 → +1.25 (4.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.34
HS/Map
6.74
K/D
0.85
KPR
0.61
ADR
68.4
KAST
71%
HS%
50.5%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)14 · KPR 0.675 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Anubis)13.7 · KPR 0.664 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.66
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.27%
Final projected kills27.73
The Last Resort gives up (40 series)+8.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 58.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~23 kills · 35r25.2%
Normal39.5%
~27 kills · 40r49.6%
Close maps16.7%
~30 kills · 44r70.9%
Overtime19.8%
~34 kills · 50r89.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
+2% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.6r
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 27.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 61.2% | |
| 25.5 Over | 58.7% | |
| 26.5 Over | 55.4% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 47.6% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 43.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
54.3%
K/D
0.96
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.66
HS%
50%
K/D
0.94
Cache
8 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.57
HS%
50.5%
K/D
0.85
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.48
HS%
41.7%
K/D
0.63
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.72
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Illyrians | 19 Ancient 13-7 | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | mellren | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 22 Ancient 14-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | ex-6666 | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Dust2 2-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | BAKS | 5 Cache 3-13 | 14 Inferno 16-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-14 | The Last Resort | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Sangal | 13 Anubis 13-16 | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | NAVI Junior | 21 Anubis 11-13 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | INFINITE | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 17 Ancient 16-14 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | RBLS | 8 Anubis 2-13 | 16 Cache 16-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Famalicão | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 9 Ancient 13-4 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | STATE | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 23 Cache 19-15 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | The Last Resort | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Cache 13-8 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | NAVI Junior | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 21 Ancient 16-12 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | INOX Division | 8 Ancient 5-13 | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 15 Cache 13-10 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | QUAZAR | 17 Inferno 13-7 | 8 Cache 6-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Honvéd | 14 Inferno 13-7 | 18 Dust2 16-12 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | BAKS | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Cache 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































