KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.29
Hit
53.7%
EV+
-6.9%
Edge
+0.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.56
Hit
50.6%
EV+
-12.3%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
#155Ranked 155 of 277 on the board

Rifler
jL
Vitality vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 15
BEST OVER · PP 15PP15UD15.5SL15.5
≈ L5 15.2 · L20 15.6Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.15
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
9/19 hit at 15
Online
11
0/1 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jL is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~29 kills at 55.9% HS): 0.663 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 26: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (31.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.56
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
50.6%
EV+
-12.3%
Rating
3/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.6%
+8.6 →
Learned
59.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13-17
All players · Headshots
61.4%241 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.71) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.4 headshots vs line 14.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 56%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.4 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.56 vs line 15 → +0.56 (3.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.67
ADR
70.3
KAST
75%
HS%
55.9%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)8 · KPR 0.716 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.7 · KPR 0.69 · 20.2r
Required KPR to clear0.663
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.30%
Final projected kills28.11
× realistic HS% (55.9%)15.56
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15. Model: 55.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.4%
~13 HS · 34r24.7%
Normal46.1%
~16 HS · 42r54.2%
Close maps10.3%
~17 HS · 43r59.2%
Overtime12.2%
~19 HS · 49r77.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 80% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
20.3r
-1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.2r
-5% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Over) · avg 15.4 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Over | 62.4% | |
| 14 Over | 59.2% | |
| 15 Over | 50.6% | OFFERED |
| 16 Over | 44.9% | below BE |
| 17 Over | 39.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 14→15+1
- Moved up14 → 15Oct 25, 03:28 AM
- First seen14Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
60%
K/D
0.97
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.99
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.1%
K/D
0.96
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
62%
K/D
1.22
Overpass
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.08
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.58
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.96
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
41.4%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Cache 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 3 Nuke 6-13 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 13 Nuke 16-14 | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 12 Dust2 13-2 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 5 Anubis 8-13 | 7 Cache 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-19 | Kosovo | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-24 | MOUZ | 10 Overpass 13-3 | 5 Ancient 13-1 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-23 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | B8 | 10 Overpass 13-8 | 13 Ancient 22-20 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-22 | MOUZ | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 5 Overpass 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | M80 | 4 Overpass 13-3 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-21 | NRG | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-17 | MOUZ | 0 Mirage 13-2 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | MOUZ | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 6 Nuke 2-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-15 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Nuke 19-15 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-11 | MOUZ | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 14-16 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































