HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.85
Hit
57.7%
EV+
-0.1%
Edge
+0.3
L10
70%
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AWPer
Jorko
Team Liquid vs MOUZ
RISK · OVER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5UD9.5
▲ L5 10.8 · L20 9.1Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 9.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
57%
8/14
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.83
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 13-16 · Inferno 16-12 · Split
12
Over 9.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
9.1
8/14 hit at 9.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Jorko is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 10+ HS (~31 kills at 32.6% HS): 0.655 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 25.5: backing Kills Over needs ~5 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (33.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
9.85
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
57.7%
EV+
-0.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.7%
-8.7 →
Learned
49%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
55.6%72 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.45) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.0 headshots vs line 8.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 33%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 10.0 against a 8.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.85 vs line 9.5 → +0.35 (3.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.04
HS/Map
4.57
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.68
ADR
66.6
KAST
73.8%
HS%
32.6%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)4.7 · KPR 0.618 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)4.8 · KPR 0.705 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.655
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.34
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.20%
Final projected kills28.98
× realistic HS% (32.6%)9.85
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 9.5. Model: 55% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.3%
~8 HS · 37r32.1%
Normal53.4%
~10 HS · 47r58.7%
Close maps2.7%
~11 HS · 48r60.4%
Overtime10.6%
~12 HS · 54r74%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.4r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.3%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Over) · avg 10.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Over | 65.2% | |
| 8.5 Over | 62.7% | |
| 9.5 Over | 57.7% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Over | 44.6% | below BE |
| 11.5 Over | 37.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 8.5→9.5+1
- Back on board8.5 → 9.5Oct 24, 08:14 PM
- Pulled8.5Oct 24, 10:11 AM
- First seen8.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.72
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.38
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.4
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.6
HS%
31.6%
K/D
1
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.86
HS%
27.9%
K/D
1.74
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
32.8%
K/D
1.39
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
19.4%
K/D
1
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.45
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 7 Ancient 13-16 | 5 Inferno 16-12 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 1 Inferno 7-13 | 4 Cache 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 7 Cache 13-2 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 2 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Anubis 13-9 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 9 Cache 16-13 | 1 Anubis 13-2 | 10 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 10 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 8 Cache 13-4 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 4 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 6 Cache 13-9 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 3 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 3 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































