KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.65
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
+1.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.98
Hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.1%
Edge
+1.5
L10
60%

Rifler
d1Ledez
BetBoom vs Team Spirit
RISK · OVER 17.5
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP17.5UD16.5
▲ L5 19.2 · L20 18.1Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.53
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.1
10/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm d1Ledez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 33.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~30 kills at 60.6% HS): 0.642 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 26.5: backing Kills Over needs ~3 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (7.8%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.98
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.6%
-6 →
Learned
53.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 8% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.88) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.0 headshots vs line 15.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 61%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.0 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 18.98 vs line 17.5 → +1.48 (8.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
9.03
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.67
ADR
75.6
KAST
71%
HS%
60.6%
Multi-kill
15.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)8.8 · KPR 0.658 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)10.1 · KPR 0.699 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.92%
Final projected kills31.16
× realistic HS% (60.6%)18.98
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 72% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~16 HS · 38r33.8%
Normal36.2%
~18 HS · 42r50.9%
Close maps24.4%
~20 HS · 48r72%
Overtime18.9%
~23 HS · 54r86.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 33.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Anubis
21.7r
+5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.3r
+12% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 18.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 66.5% | |
| 16.5 Over | 65% | |
| 17.5 Over | 59.6% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 38.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 15.5→17.5+2
- Back on board15.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.71
HS%
67.4%
K/D
1.08
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.57
HS%
60.2%
K/D
0.82
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
57%
K/D
0.89
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
20.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
55.3%
K/D
1.16
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
63.2%
K/D
0.8
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
60%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 13 Ancient 19-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 12 Dust2 16-14 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 13 Nuke 16-13 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Mirage 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 13 Cache 14-16 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 10 Anubis 13-16 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 9 Cache 13-8 | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 5 Nuke 3-13 | 12 Anubis 11-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 5 Cache 2-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 2 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Anubis 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 10 Overpass 8-13 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | FURIA | 5 Overpass 6-13 | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ |







































































































































































