KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.01
Hit
46.6%
EV+
-19.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.01
Hit
33.1%
EV+
-42.7%
Edge
+1.5
L10
40%

AWPer
zorte
BetBoom vs Team Spirit
RISK · UNDER 30.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP30.5UD30.5
▲ L5 34.2 · L20 30.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.22
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30
12/20 hit at 30.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm zorte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 33.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.678 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.01
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
46.6%
EV+
-19.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.6%
+4.4 →
Learned
51%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 19% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.21) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.9 kills vs line 26.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 34%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.9 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.01 vs line 30.5 → -0.49 (-1.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15
HS/Map
5.15
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.68
ADR
68.9
KAST
72.3%
HS%
34.3%
Multi-kill
15.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.3 · KPR 0.603 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)14.9 · KPR 0.627 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.678
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.92%
Final projected kills28.21
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 53.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~25 kills · 38r84.8%
Normal36.2%
~28 kills · 42r67.9%
Close maps24.4%
~32 kills · 48r40.2%
Overtime18.9%
~36 kills · 54r18.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 33.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 34% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Anubis
21.7r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.3r
-1% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 31.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 35% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 38.8% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 46.6% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 50.4% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 54% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 26.5→30.5+4
- Back on board26.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
27.6%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
33%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
38.8%
K/D
1.3
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.06
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
40%
K/D
0.91
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
21.7%
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 28 Ancient 19-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 5-13 | 25 Dust2 16-14 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 24 Nuke 16-13 | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 25 Nuke 13-7 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 19 Cache 16-14 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 8 Mirage 5-13 | 17 Cache 14-16 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 20 Mirage 13-7 | 19 Anubis 13-16 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 23 Anubis 16-14 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 16 Cache 13-8 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 20 Anubis 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 8 Cache 2-13 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 18 Mirage 10-13 | 26 Dust2 13-6 | 44 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 11 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Anubis 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 12 Overpass 8-13 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | FURIA | 11 Overpass 6-13 | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ |







































































































































































