KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
36.24
Hit
59.4%
EV+
+2.9%
Edge
+4.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.84
Hit
60.5%
EV+
+4.8%
Edge
+1.3
L10
70%

AWPer
El1an
INOX Division vs Brute
LEAN · OVER 31.5
▲ L5 35.4 · L20 33.7
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±9.14
Previous meeting · vs Brute
0/1 hit · avg 30 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-21 · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
Dust2 10-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
30
Under 31.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
33.7
9/20 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm El1an is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.658 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
36.24
Raw edge
+4.7
Cons. hit
59.4%
EV+
+2.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
47.9
Line
31.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.4%
+1.9 →
Learned
61.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
57.7%213 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (36.61) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.5 kills vs line 31.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.75, HS 29%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 33.5 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 36.24 vs line 31.5 → +4.74 (15.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.9 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.85
HS/Map
4.92
K/D
1.29
KPR
0.75
ADR
81.2
KAST
74.6%
HS%
29.2%
Multi-kill
19.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)18.1 · KPR 0.756 · 24r
Map 2 (Mirage)18.5 · KPR 0.776 · 23.9r
Required KPR to clear0.658
Base kills (Maps 1-2)36.69
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.23%
Final projected kills36.61
Brute gives up (32 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 69.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~30 kills · 40r42.1%
Normal57%
~36 kills · 48r69.5%
Close maps5.8%
~39 kills · 51r80%
Overtime16.7%
~43 kills · 57r91.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.9r
+4% KPR here
Total
47.9r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 33.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 63.1% | |
| 30.5 Over | 60.9% | |
| 31.5 Over | 59.4% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 57.6% | below BE |
| 33.5 Over | 55.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 31.5→offno change
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 02:12 PM
- Back on board31.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
20 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.76
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.27
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.79
HS%
23.2%
K/D
1.37
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.77
HS%
28.3%
K/D
1.43
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
36%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
38%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
46%
K/D
1.92
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 28 Dust2 7-13 | 26 Nuke 13-8 | 54 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | FOKUS | 21 Dust2 16-14 | 18 Cache 7-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | SPARTA | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 19 Mirage 7-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | SPARTA | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 17 Inferno 16-12 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 20 Mirage 13-16 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-16 | SPARTA | 28 Ancient 16-19 | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 20 Dust2 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Leo | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | SPARTA | 13 Cache 13-6 | 11 Dust2 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | SPARTA | 23 Dust2 13-6 | 27 Mirage 20-19 | 50 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | SPARTA | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | SPARTA | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | SPARTA | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-7 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 30 Dust2 22-19 | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 49 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | SPARTA | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Cache 13-4 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 22 Dust2 13-16 | 16 Nuke 13-3 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | PCIFIC | 27 Dust2 13-10 | 12 Inferno 13-6 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-19 | SPARTA | 16 Cache 13-9 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ |








































































































































































