KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.35
Hit
35%
EV+
-39.3%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.14
Hit
40%
EV+
-30.7%
Edge
-0.4
L10
40%

Rifler · IGL
stanislaw
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · UNDER 13.5
PP13.5
▲ L5 14.6 · L20 13.2Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 13.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
56%
10/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.52
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
11
2/4 hit at 13.5
Online · this match
13.9
8/14 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm stanislaw is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 50.6% HS): below 0.588 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (20.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.14
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
40%
EV+
-30.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
40%
+3.2 →
Learned
43.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
39.3%224 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 67% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 21% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.51) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.0 headshots vs line 13.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 51%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 13.0 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.14 vs line 13.5 → -0.36 (-2.7%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.06
HS/Map
6.61
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.56
ADR
64.8
KAST
74.7%
HS%
50.6%
Multi-kill
11.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)6.5 · KPR 0.533 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.1 · KPR 0.551 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.588
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.59
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills24.73
× realistic HS% (50.6%)13.14
BAKS gives up (31 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13.5. Model: 54.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.9%
~11 HS · 38r77.4%
Normal56%
~13 HS · 44r61.8%
Close maps8.4%
~14 HS · 49r46.1%
Overtime20.7%
~16 HS · 55r29.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 67% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
23.8r
-5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.6r
-2% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Under) · avg 13.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Under | 25% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 31.4% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 40% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Under | 50.4% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 59.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→13.5no change
- First seen13.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.53
HS%
48.6%
K/D
0.81
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.55
HS%
47%
K/D
0.8
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.59
HS%
50%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.9%
K/D
0.95
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
68%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 11 Cache 16-14 | 6 Nuke 17-19 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 6 Cache 13-3 | 5 Nuke 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 6 Nuke 13-11 | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 2 Mirage 13-6 | 2 Inferno 7-13 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Nuke 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 8 Mirage 14-16 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Cache 13-6 | 8 Nuke 14-16 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 1 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 6 Nuke 25-23 | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 6 Inferno 16-13 | 6 Cache 16-13 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 6 Cache 9-13 | 4 Nuke 13-8 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 7 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Nuke 4-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































